When François Legault published his study on the public finances of a sovereign Quebec in 2005, the Minister of Finance of the Charest government Michel Audet declared that it presented a “false and truncated” image of reality. “It’s Alice in Wonderland,” he said wryly.
Mr. Audet, however, did not question the accuracy of Mr. Legault’s calculations. Instead, he criticized him for having underestimated the impact of secession on the growth rate of the Quebec economy, in particular the job losses it would cause.
Since the Parti Québécois (PQ) used the same method as it in preparing the year one budget that Paul St-Pierre Plamondon made public on Monday, Mr. Legault would be even more inappropriate to question it. For a good accountant, it is not very difficult to calculate the recoverable federal revenues, the cost of overlaps and the possible savings.
Like Mr. Audet and all the federalist tenors who preceded him, the Prime Minister therefore fell back on the jobs which could disappear during this famous transition period, these “five years of turbulence” which Pauline Marois had mentioned. The argument has the advantage of being unverifiable.
“Due to its highly speculative nature, estimates may vary,” recognizes the PQ study. However, “the empirical literature suggests that Quebec’s overall economic situation will not change following its accession to independence. Peaceful independence movements do not seem to create any penalty on economic growth.”
Former federal minister Stéphane Dion made a specialty of demonstrating that everything that had gone well elsewhere did not apply to Quebec. The PQ gives the example of the separation between Serbia and Montenegro, where an acceleration of growth was observed, but this fact risks not being worth the weight in the face of the multitude of prophets of doom.
Conversely, it is equally difficult to predict the positive economic effects that independence would have. The birth of a new country in North America would certainly arouse interest around the world, but Paul St-Pierre Plamondon gets a little carried away when he mentions “the establishment of more than 200 embassies in the city of Quebec”, while there are only around a hundred in Ottawa.
There is also no assurance that a sovereign Quebec would inherit only 17.6% of the federal debt, as the province accounts for 22% of the Canadian population. Regardless of the validity of the method that leads to this figure, everything will be on the table when it comes to negotiating the terms of secession – and especially those of a possible association.
When it comes to money, the reflex of ordinary mortals is one of caution, and they are generally of the opinion that “one is worth two.” Dispelling the distrust that the sovereignist project still arouses will require a lot of education.
In 2005, the PQ gave virtually no follow-up to the study led by Mr. Legault. Less than a month after its publication, Bernard Landry took everyone by surprise by resigning, and his departure was followed by quite tumultuous years internally. After the 2012 elections, the minority government of Pauline Marois instead chose to promote secularism. This time, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has clearly indicated that he will not give up.
Mr. Legault decreed from the outset that this debate was not a priority for Quebecers, who are more interested in health, education, the economy, the environment, the cost of life… Everything except a referendum. However, it is precisely because it would allow the authorities to invest more in health and education that he once presented sovereignty as an urgent necessity.
The leader of the PQ described as “intellectual dishonesty” the concentration of the debate on equalization by the Prime Minister, who continually repeats that it amounted to only 4 billion in 2005 compared to 13 billion now.
François Legault neglects to specify that federal revenues have more than doubled since then, but above all that the proportion of the cost of health services assumed by Ottawa continues to decrease. Of the additional 6 billion it demanded, Quebec only obtained one. In his 2005 study, the former PQ also made much of the fiscal imbalance and the way in which Ottawa took advantage of it to invade provincial areas of jurisdiction.
Nothing has changed since then, except Mr. Legault himself.