After the vote on a considerably tougher text in the Senate, the presidential camp is preparing its battle plan for the examination of the immigration bill in the Assembly. The game promises to be difficult without an absolute majority.
“All the ingredients are there for this to be a turning point in the five-year term, sighs this majority member. We don’t really know where the ball is going to fall.” The object of its concern has agitated the political-media class for more than a year and can be summed up in four words: immigration bill. The text, mainly carried by the Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, will be examined in the National Assembly, first in the law committee, the week of November 27, then in a public session from December 11 to 22. It was considerably toughened by the Senate, which had the first look at the examination, thanks to a deal within the senatorial majority between Les Républicains of Bruno Retailleau and the centrists of Hervé Marseille.
The game promises to be even more difficult at the Palais Bourbon, without an absolute majority for eighteen months. “Now the real fight beginslaunches the Renaissance MP Pierre Cazeneuve. It is extremely important that we can show that we are capable of passing an ambitious text.” After the cataclysmic retirement episode which ended with the government’s last-minute rescue, by just nine votes, the presidential camp is playing its return match. Negotiations are in full swing. “It’s a work of art, every word counts”, confides Renaissance MP Guillaume Gouffier-Valente. Because adopting this text without 49.3 is a challenge. Especially since we must first ensure the unity of the majority troops before seeking votes or abstentions elsewhere.
A left-right divide reactivated within the majority
The senatorial version – which notably deleted article 3 on professions in shortage to replace it with a much more restricted article 4 bis – caused a stir within the presidential camp. The Macronists are in the middle of a dilemma: should we validate the senators’ copy to obtain the assent of the LR deputies and then have a conclusive joint committee when the elected representatives of the Palais Bourbon meet the senators? Or should we rewrite the text more thoroughly so as not to anger some of the president’s supporters?
Because the left-right divide within the majority is once again reactivated. On one side Horizons, the party of Edouard Philippe, and the right wing of Renaissance. On the other, the MoDem and the left wing of Renaissance. “The Senate text presents interesting advances that the Assembly should preserve”thus assures the philippist Philippe Pradal, citing in particular the rewriting of the section on professions in tension. “We must know how to accept compromise. The Senate has retained a legislative approach on the titles [métiers] in tension, it’s a good thing”supports Robin Reda, Renaissance MP, right wing tendency.
The left wing sees red. “The Republicans have taken up the proposals of the extreme right, all the sliders have been pushed beyond the maximum”protests the Maine-et-Loire MP Stella Dupont, who even describes it as “tea towel” the senators’ copy. “I am extremely shocked by the Senate’s final text”, confides Yvelines MP Nadia Hai, although not classified in the left wing. The former Minister of the City says “not understanding the vote” Macronist senators in favor of the compromise found since the text “no longer corresponds to Renaissance values”. Same position on the MoDem side.
“The Senate version is a provocative text, they are completely off the mark. We are for a balanced text, and the initial text was balanced.”
Erwan Balanant, MoDem deputyat franceinfo
“All this can create real bill lines in the majority which would color the year 2024”alarms another deputy.
Florent Boudié, general rapporteur of the bill, from the ranks of Renaissance, therefore has the primary mission of ensuring the unity of the presidential camp. “I absolutely want to avoid the political obstacle coming from within”, he explains. This former socialist says he sent the message that we would not return to the initial text. Gérald Darmanin’s office agrees:“The text will now be enriched by the Assembly, there will be provisions from the Senate which will remain, others which will be modified or withdrawn.”
“They are loyalists”
The totemic measure on professions in tension will thus be modified with a new writing which would suit the entire majority, according to Florent Boudié. The plaintiff would no longer have “a general enforceable right” (the initial version) and the prefect “discretionary power” (the Senate version). From now on, with this umpteenth version on professions in tension, the State representative will have to notify his refusal of a request for regularization based on reasons included in the law, such as the serious threat to public order or actions contrary to the principles of the values of the Republic.
Concerning the transformation of State Medical Aid (AME) into Emergency Medical Aid (AMU), another measure added by LR and potentially creating division within the majority, the way out is ready: c It is a legislative rider (a provision which has nothing to do with the initial text) which should be challenged by the office of the National Assembly, or failing that by the Constitutional Council. Like other very right-wing measures, voted by the Senate, relating to land rights or family reunion.
For many, the disunity of the presidential camp will not be verified at the time of the vote. “The majority deputies are ultimately loyalists”, underlines a ministerial advisor. “I will repeat that we must reduce migratory flows, but I will vote for the text”assures the Renaissance deputy Charles Sitzenstuhl, classified on the right.
“I’m not going to have fun pretending that I’m not going to vote for the text. I think that everyone in our country will vote for it.”
Charles Sitzenstuhl, Renaissance MPat franceinfo
Once the question of unity has been resolved, the thorny problem of establishing a majority remains to be tackled. And therefore to find votes or, failing that, abstentions in the other camps. Which would make it possible to lower the absolute majority gauge.
In search of “the way of passage”
“It’s calmer today so that the text can get through”relieves, optimistic, Ludovic Mendès, Renaissance deputy. “We didn’t see how an agreement in the Senate was possible with a section on regularizations. But, it was done, compromise is always possible, it’s the Darmanin method”praises his office. “The scarlet red lights of some time ago are a little less so”, rebounds Florent Boudié. And to cite the few recent positive signals: “We have Liot with us”with the appointment of a rapporteur, Olivier Serva, from the ranks of the 21 deputies of Bertrand Pancher’s group. “Socialists and environmentalists alike said they would not vote for a motion of censure for LR” And, “at LFI, they announced that they would not obstruct.”
The Republicans are the political group that the Macronists are eyeing to get their text across. The Interior Minister’s entourage also confirms that discussions with Gérald Darmanin take place with the right, Liot, but, at this stage, not with the left. However, LR deputies are not LR senators. Their staff, starting with the president of the group, Olivier Marleix, adopted a very tough position, going so far as to threaten a motion of censure in the event of 49.3.
Nevertheless, the 61 deputies – who self-qualify “self-employed” – are far from being all aligned. “I think this text is not so bad for France”confided, before the examination in the Senate, an LR deputy. “We cannot fail to strengthen the French response to the migration issue.” Florent Boudié sees this as an opportunity: “At LR, they are not very comfortable, Aurélien Pradié should help us by giving Eric Ciotti an opportunity to refocus.” The deputy for Lot, rebellious in his camp during the pension reform, takes a very tough position on immigration and even describes the senatorial copy as “retreat”. The strategy is therefore quite clear, according to Pierre Cazeneuve, Renaissance MP.
“The path of passage exists with a united and solid majority, with Liot, some LR who vote for and others who abstain and a little left on certain points.”
Pierre Cazeneuve, Renaissance deputyat franceinfo
But the mouse hole is narrow. And the 49.3 is on everyone’s mind, even if it is too early to anticipate it. The vast majority of deputies in the presidential camp do not want it, the trauma of retirement being never far away. “If, on the day of the solemn vote, we are within three votes, I think we should go for it, even if it means losing”assures Florent Boudié. Robin Reda agrees: “I think we have to accept the taste for risk and go to the vote.”
But, already, dissonant voices are being heard. “If we cannot find common ground within the majority, the mass is said, but if we have the capacity to find a satisfactory common wording, we will have the possibility of using all the tools of the Constitution at our disposal”book Stella Dupont. “49.3 should neither be excluded in principle nor decided before discussion”, says Philippe Pradal. The plot of the film has not yet been written, even by those who are the screenwriters. “I don’t know the end of the story”smiles Florent Boudié.