The development of artificial intelligence (AI) may raise “concerns”, but it may also offer a “tremendous opportunity” given that growth in the global economy “has been very weak in recent years”, said the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, during an interview with Agence France-Presse.
The head of the IMF was speaking after the publication by her institution of a report devoted to the impact of AI on employment and the global economy, ahead of the meetings of the World Economic Forum in Davos, which began on Monday in the Swiss Alpine resort.
According to this report, AI will have consequences for 60% of jobs in advanced economies, but could above all lead to an even greater dropout in the most vulnerable countries.
“Around the world, 40% of jobs will be affected. And the more skilled you are in a job, the more this will be the case. Thus, for advanced economies, and certain emerging countries, 60% of jobs will be affected,” declared Ms. Georgieva, recalling that this impact could also translate into “an increase in income”.
AI could in fact accelerate salary inequalities, with a particularly negative effect on the middle classes, while employees who already have high incomes could see their salaries “increase more than in proportion” to their income gain. productivity that AI would allow them to ensure.
“It is certain that there will be an impact, but it may be different, whether it leads to the disappearance of your job or on the contrary its improvement. So, what should we do with those who are affected and how can we share productivity gains? What can we do to be better prepared? » asked Mme Georgieva.
The IMF’s fear, however, is above all to see AI reinforce the gap between advanced countries and others, which would not benefit as much from future innovations.
“We must move quickly, allowing them to take advantage of the possibilities offered by AI. The real question will be putting aside fears about AI and focusing on how to get the most out of it for everyone,” she said.
Especially since, in a context of slowing down the pace of global growth, “we desperately need” elements capable of boosting productivity.
Elections and budgetary constraints
In the meantime, the Director General of the Fund invites States to make efforts on the budgetary level, in a context of rising rates and high debt, necessary to cope with the shocks of recent years, between pandemic, war in Ukraine and sharp rise in prices.
“For some countries, the debt problem becomes dramatic, either because they become insolvent or because they have to spend a large part of their income on debt service,” which limits their ability to invest and finance essential services.
Nevertheless, even if “debt service [le coût annuel du remboursement du capital emprunté et des intérêts] has increased everywhere”, the level reached “remains manageable in many countries, because many have had the wisdom to modify the structure of their debt”, underlined Mme Georgieva.
Despite everything, “countries need to rebuild their budgetary cushions”, because they must be “always ready to face the unexpected”.
This requires margin in terms of public finances, which many states no longer have after three years of repeated crises, she added.
But even more, a fiscal policy that is too expansionary would cancel out the effects of monetary policy, which is restrictive, in order to bring inflation back to more acceptable levels, which would only lengthen the time necessary to achieve this.
However, Kristalina Georgieva is aware of another reality: in 2024, “nearly 80 countries will have elections, and we know what is happening and the pressure that exists to spend during electoral cycles”.
The head of the Fund, whose mandate ends at the end of September, insisted on the fact that “this year will be difficult”.
“We have to be ready for the uncertainties that will come,” explained Kristalina Georgieva.