“You have to be sure that the decline has started to be able to start relaxing certain measures”, said Jonathan Roux, epidemiologist at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health in Rennes (EHESP), Thursday January 20 on franceinfo, while the Prime Minister announced the timetable for the gradual lifting of restrictions intended to curb the progression of the Covid-19. “This exceptional wave is not over, but I believe I can tell you that the situation is starting to evolve more favorably”, according to Jean Castex.
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“We see that we are still in an increase in the number of cases”, notes Jonathan Roux. Corn “it remains to be confirmed”, according to him, if the peak “was reached”. If a “stagnation in the number of people in intensive care” is observed, “with a decrease in the number of people arriving in intensive care every day”, in conventional hospitalization, there are “still patients arriving, but who require lighter care”. The epidemiologist sees “this long-awaited peak” to arrive “gradually”. This is the reason why it is necessary “continue the measures which are still restrictive, such as gauges or teleworking”. With the calendar “more precise” given by the government for the beginning of February, the epidemiologist “Think that we will have reached the peak of contamination by then and that we will have started the decline.”
If there is an improvement in the health situation, “it is thanks in particular to vaccination”, emphasizes Jonathan Roux, because “the French population is highly vaccinated”. This is also due to the Omicron variant, “majority in France” who is “much less dangerous for people who are not vaccinated”. This double observation leads the epidemiologist to say that “vaccination remains very effective against severe forms”. According to him, “in combination with the lesser danger of the Omicron variant and this vaccination which remains very effective against serious forms, we will no doubt be able to relax the measures by having a circulation of the virus which will be greater than that which we had when we had slackened on previous waves.”
“Within a fortnight, gradually at the end of January-beginning of February, the pressure on the hospital will decrease”, estimated on franceinfo Frédéric Valletoux, president of the French Hospital Federation (FHF) and acting mayor of Fontainebleau. “Vaccination coverage continues to improve. It has played a real role in shielding and protecting the population”, recalls Frédéric Valletoux. But nevertheless, “You shouldn’t give the impression that everything is rosy in the hospital“. He points out that if “the numbers are low” especially in critical care, “the overall pressure on the hospital remains strong, but we see that the end of the tunnel is beginning to be glimpsed by the hospital staff.”
With this pressure dropping, the end of operation deprogramming is on the way “in some hospitals”, underlines the president of the Hospital Federation of France. “We again have patients who are called back to tell them, ‘we will now be able to reschedule your surgery’. This is resuming in a few establishments”. Frédéric Valletoux recalls that “one of the consequences of this epidemic is the large volume of deprogramming for two years”. In 2020 and 2021, “Around three million medical acts have been deprogrammed, from operations to consultations. For some patients, this can mean a loss of opportunity”. This is a consequence of the health crisis “that we measure badly”, notes the boss of the FHF.
“Behind, what is the reality of all these operations that we had to postpone? What are the consequences for the patients concerned? That, we do not appreciate. So good if hospital activity returns to normal.
Frédéric Valletoux President of the French Hospital Federation (FHF)at franceinfo
The president of the French Hospital Federation finally wants to have “a thought for the hospital workers who have two years of mobilization against the Covid and who will have to resume normal activity”. For them, the end of the Covid-19 epidemic does not mean “a decrease in activity and hospital pressure”. We’ll have to “return to normal functioning, resume all these patients who have been deprogrammed in recent weeks”, adds Frédéric Valletoux. “There are still going to be busy weeks for hospital workers.”