After having chained European Council, G7 summit then NATO summit, Emmanuel Macron is back in Paris. With a political situation still as complex to manage. A return to square one, in a way. After this long international parenthesis, the puzzle to be solved has not changed. How to widen and consolidate its majority?
Elisabeth Borne consulted the presidents of the Assembly’s groups all week long. The Prime Minister was confirmed in her post by the President in an interview with AFP. But his superior therefore returns to Paris to raise the copies. And for now, the result is not great and the mission still as delicate. The first step is a reshuffle made essential by the defeat of three ministers in the legislative elections, Amélie de Montchalin, Brigitte Bourguignon, and Justine Benin. The fate of a fourth, Damien Abad, is uncertain since he is the subject of a complaint for an attempted rape which dates back to 2010. Elisabeth Borne had said that she would shoot “all the consequences” of a new pleading, but the Elysée seems more reluctant and recalls the opening of an investigation is obviously not worth guilt, and not even indictment.
The new government must be unveiled no later than Tuesday. Quite simply because on Wednesday, Elisabeth Borne is expected at the Assembly for her general policy speech. Not sure that the executive will manage to attract some big fish into its nets, perhaps mayors or right-wing regional presidents since several of them have called on LR to work with Emmanuel Macron. Beyond the casting, the speech of general policy is a republican ritual which implies that the Prime Minister presents a detailed program of reforms, which will force the executive to come out of the ambiguity on several files, in particular that, explosive, retirements.
Will Elisabeth Borne seek a vote of confidence from the deputies? Not sure. She hesitates, and nothing forces her to. In their distant times, Raymond Barre or Michel Rocard had not done so. And the risk of failure is high. She only has 250 assured votes, maybe 260 or 265 at most. Far from the absolute majority of 289. Obtaining a relative majority thanks to the abstention of the right would put it in the hand of LR. The abstention of the National Rally would cause a gigantic outcry on the left. And above all, this vote, even positive, will not solve anything. It is afterwards, day by day, text by text, that the executive will have to invent this “new method” promised by Emmanuel Macron to advance over this legislature of all dangers.