“For China, the chances of victory are extremely minimal,” says a specialist

It is certain that the election of Lai Ching-te, the pro-independence presidential candidate, is “a snub for Beijing”, comments Valérie Niquet, director of the Asia pole of the Foundation for Strategic Research. However, reacting militarily would be a “considerable risk”.

“For China, the risk would be absolutely considerable and the chances of victory extremely minimal,” estimated Monday January 15 on franceinfo Valérie Niquet, director of the Asia pole of the Foundation for Strategic Research. While Lai Ching-te, the pro-independence candidate, won Taiwan’s presidential election on Saturday, the question of Chinese military intervention arises once again. Beijing immediately reacted by assuring that the island was still part of the “One China”. The election result “is a snub for Beijing”, says Valérie Niquet. Taiwan “is a counter-model that is unbearable for the Chinese Communist Party.” The United States sent an informal delegation to Taiwan to meet with outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen two days after the election. “There is a desire to support a democracy” from Joe Biden, explains the specialist.

franceinfo: The result of the elections in Taiwan brings us closer or further away from war ?

Valérie Niquet: What is certain is that it is a snub for Beijing. China constantly repeats that Taiwan will be reunified, that this is the meaning of history. In each election that puts in power in Taiwan a candidate who calls himself an independentist, even if in reality these independentists are very cautious and have no intention of formally declaring independence at all, it is a challenge for those in power. Chinese. Faced with this challenge, Beijing cannot do much. There is talk of a possibility of war. But invading Taiwan would be even more difficult, including in terms of transporting troops for example, than what Russia did in Ukraine.

On paper, we have the impression that Beijing would make short work of Taiwan. It is more complicated than that ?

It’s a bit like David and Goliath. It seems like there is no problem. Taiwan is 200 kilometers of sea between the continent and the island. We remember that, for the landing in Normandy, 30 kilometers, 40 kilometers to cross, it took years of preparation before it could happen. All this is done under the eye of satellite observations.

“China could not launch a surprise operation. It would immediately be subject to the possibility of a response, in particular from this major player which weighs on the strategic balance in the region, the United States.”

Valérie Niquet, director of the Asia division of the Foundation for Strategic Research

at franceinfo

For China, the risk would be absolutely considerable and the chances of victory extremely minimal. At the same time, we want to put pressure on Taiwan, but on the other hand, the concrete means of action are still limited.

Why does the existence of Taiwan bother Beijing so much?

This is the meaning of the story. The idea is that the Communist Party has achieved victory on the mainland and therefore, in their minds, Taiwan must be conquered, since that is where the former government of the Republic of China took refuge in 1949. Taiwan’s main problem is that it is an extremely well-functioning democracy in Asia. It is one of the leading democracies in the entire Asian region and even beyond, with elections and alternations. It is a counter-model which is unbearable for the Chinese Communist Party which constantly reaffirms that democracy and human rights and all these democratic values ​​are purely Western values ​​which have nothing to do with Chinese culture. and the regime that must exist in China.

“This is a very important ideological challenge also for Beijing.”

Valérie Niquet

at franceinfo

Why did the United States send an informal delegation to Taiwan in recent hours?

The informal delegation is to say that the United States respects the principle of one China, that they recognize that, for Beijing, Taiwan is part of China. So there are no official diplomatic relations between the United States and Taiwan. But we can clearly see that there is a desire to support a democracy. Taiwan has an increasingly positive image on the international scene. We are talking about it much more than in the past and it is largely the responsibility of the Chinese regime itself which, through its extremely aggressive and increasingly closed attitude since Xi Jinping came to power, has considerably harmed interests and image of the People’s Republic of China. The President of the National Assembly in France congratulated the Taiwanese president on his election. There are a whole series of official statements, even if they remain cautious.