We may activate all the retraining, and we must do it, Quebec society is and will be grappling with a chronic lack of manpower as far as we can see in the future. Nearly 100% of Quebec businesses are currently facing a labor shortage, and the situation is no better in the public sector. Could it be that the current lack of manpower announces, for tomorrow, a deficit of the quantity of citizens required for a harmonious internal development and an external influence that Quebec needs for the vitality of its economy and its culture ?
Lack of citizens?
The question must be asked.
It is incorrect to claim that the labor shortage is of the same order in Quebec as elsewhere in the world, and particularly in North America. The difference is in the expected population growth by 2050; over 60, 20, 9 and 5 million citizens respectively for the United States, Mexico, Canada and Ontario compared to just over half a million for Quebec. In 2045, the population of Ontario will total 20 million people, that of Quebec, just under 10 million.
Our neighbors and main economic partners will have reserves for the renewal and enrichment of their workforce. This will not be the case for Quebec. Should we take note without more or push further the analysis relating to our demographic future? Has the time come to create a commission of inquiry as we have done, in the past and, with success, when we had to enlighten our future in terms of education, health and social welfare , language policy, relations between Aboriginal peoples and certain public services, freedom of association, etc.
Demographic needs
The mandate of this commission could include the following subjects: (1) analysis of the demographic needs of Quebec between now and the middle of the century. The accelerated aging of its population and the continued decline in the population of working age combined with the need to produce economic, ecological, social and cultural goods and services would be taken into account; (2) analysis of the demographic needs of the regions, of each of them, whose development will not take place without a critical mass of citizens; (3) evaluation of the expected share of advanced technologies in Quebec’s economic, ecological, social and cultural production to ensure the maintenance or even the growth of the activity rate in the coming decades; (4) the analysis of the immigration policy including the negative interprovincial migratory balance of Quebec for thirty years; the examination of the causes of the departure of immigrants who come to Quebec after the first eighteen months of their arrival and the review of our reception systems, including the offer of francization which must become, in quantity and quality, the one of our most advanced policies. (5) Finally, the analysis of the foreseeable political effects of low, medium or high population growth.
If the proportion of seniors (65 years and over) is currently 20% and totals 1.7 million Quebecers, it will gradually increase to 27% in 2050, to total 2.6 million Quebecers. What workforce will we need to provide these seniors with the home or institutional services required by their situation?
What are the critical masses of citizens required by 2050 for the deployment of a strong economic, social and cultural life in the regions of Quebec? To ensure that each region remains viable, dynamic and attractive.
A population policy?
At the end of the commission’s work, Québec would have data relating to its future demographic situation, elements of a possible Québec population policy. In doing so, Quebec would join many countries that are pursuing this research concerning them.
If nothing is done to build the future differently, we must fear the weakening of a society diminished by its demographic weakness and its aging; also fear the collapse of its social model and the loss of the dynamism that has carried its economic momentum over the past half-century. In the past, Quebec has found, in research on itself, knowledge of best practices and concerted action, the levers of its lasting affirmation. These convergent approaches have served him well. It must urgently revive them in order to adopt a demographic policy capable of making up for its lack of manpower and consolidating its primary wealth, its human wealth.