Food prices have increased by 11% in Quebec in 2022, the largest increase in Canada. In an annual report released on Monday, 26 researchers predict that the upward trend will continue into 2023, but will be less marked.
“In 2023, Canadians are expected to continue to feel the effects of high food price inflation,” reads the report, released annually by Dalhousie University, the University of Guelph, the University of British Columbia and the University of Saskatchewan.
This increase in 2022 is due to “supply chain disruptions as well as labor shortages”, “direct impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic”, can we read in the report. “Adverse weather events, growing geopolitical tensions, high oil prices and the falling Canadian dollar are all contributing factors to observed retail food prices. »
This food inflation “is part of a global movement, says the scientific director of the Laboratory of Analytical Sciences in Agrifood at Dalhousie University, Sylvain Charlebois. It was difficult to avoid what is happening now”. The increase exceeded the predictions of the previous report by more than 3%, due to the war in Ukraine, which added an “inflation coefficient”, he said.
In 2023, the products that will experience the highest increase will be vegetables, a food category particularly affected by climate change, explains marketing professor JoAnne Labrecque, of HEC Montreal. Their prices are expected to increase by 6-8%.
The price of lettuce especially increased in the month of November, reaching six to seven dollars. “Usually these prices, we have them in February. So, what’s it going to be like in February? » launches Mme Labrecque.
Dairy, bakery and meat prices could increase by 5-7%, seafood and restaurant prices by 4-6%, and fruit by 3-5%.
Quebec experienced the highest price increase in 2022 in Canada (11%). A difference that can be explained by the cost of energy, according to Mme Labrecque.
“We know that gas prices are higher in Quebec than in Ontario. So it’s not necessarily due to the major distributors, because they are the same three major players—Sobeys, Metro and Loblaws—in the provinces. »
British Columbia, which experienced the smallest increase (9.2%), “is a major producer and exporter of fruits and vegetables,” recalls Pascal Thériault, agronomist and economist from McGill University, unlike Quebec, which focuses on the production of a few foods and relies heavily on imports.
According to the report, price increases in Quebec in 2023 should be below the national average, around 5%. “Prices will continue to rise, but not at the same pace as in 2022,” particularly in the second half of the year, said Charlebois, who co-authored the study. “We are not out of the storm yet, but there is still light at the end of the tunnel. »
“If it goes up by 5%, which is still a lot compared to pre-pandemic years, the fact remains that it is half of what we have experienced this year”, underlines Mr. Thériault. “However, we are not talking about a drop in food prices, we are talking about a drop in the rise in food prices”, he nuances.
Mme Labrecque is not very optimistic either. “Here, we are just talking about food, but in 2022, everything has increased. If we add 5 to 7% to the 11%, that’s an 18% increase. It is a lot and, for average incomes, it is difficult to absorb. »
Changing habits
The retail expert adds that a large proportion of consumers have already changed their habits in the face of rising prices, by checking flyers more rigorously, or by buying more house brands. “If disposable incomes are already tight, reducing them by another 7%, with taxes and housing going up, at some point, the equation is difficult. »
According to Mr. Thériault, it is this change in habits that can lower prices, in particular avoiding buying processed foods, which have seen “the biggest increase. The food processing sector is not filling its pockets, but it is also experiencing great financial stress,” he says.
“In some cases, what is considered a shortage will just become a certain reality. Do we need to have 47 kinds of cereals on the shelves? […] There are products to which we are accustomed that we will no longer find on the shelves, ”says the economist.
Faced with rising food prices, many Canadians have turned to food banks. Their attendance “increased by 15% in Canada,” the report reads. And the three experts consulted by The duty agree that the trend will continue in 2023.
Loss of trustworthy
The report also highlights a loss of consumer confidence in grocery stores. “Although there is currently no evidence of abuse by grocers, nearly 80% of Canadians say there is abuse in the system,” it says.
Ottawa also demanded, last October, that the Competition Bureau conduct an investigation into the profits of grocery store chains.