Fluoroscopy | From general to president?

Why are we talking about it

Prabowo Subianto is the favorite in the Indonesian presidential election scheduled for February 14. More than 205 million voters, spread over 18,000 islands, will vote for the successor of Joko Widodo (nicknamed Jokowi), prevented by the Constitution from running for a third term after 10 years in power. Polls show that Prabowo is 20 points ahead of his main rivals (the former governor of Jakarta, Anies Baswedan, and the ex-governor of Central Java, Ganjar Pranowo). If none of the candidates obtains more than 50% of the votes, a second round will be organized at the end of June between the two leading candidates.

A troubled past

Former general and current Minister of Defense, ex-son-in-law of the authoritarian dictator Suharto (who reigned from 1965 to 1998), Prabowo is seen as a firm leader, committed to maintaining order. In the 1990s, he was allegedly involved in the kidnapping and torture of democracy activists and human rights abuses, notably in East Timor, then a breakaway region which became an independent country in 2002. These allegations are denied by the main person concerned, who has never been prosecuted. But his candidacy worries observers: “If he is elected, Prabowo risks gradually continuing the dismantling of Indonesian democracy and reducing the rights and freedoms of the democratic opposition which had started under Jokowi,” believes Alexandre Paquin- Pelletier, professor of political science at Laval University, currently in Indonesia.

Embrace the dynasty

Prabowo is now trying to soften his image. He presents himself as a harmless grandfather, using humor and steppettes at political rallies, even using TikTok to build a base of young supporters. He has also seen his popularity rise since he chose Gibran Rakabuming Raka, 36, eldest son of outgoing President Jokowi, as his running mate. The latter is accused of using this alliance to maintain his influence and build a political dynasty in the archipelago. But interest cuts both ways. Gibran’s candidacy will favor Prabowo in provinces where he is weaker (Central Java and East Java) and could attract the support of voters under 40.

The logical continuation

If elected, Prabowo has promised to continue Jokowi’s protectionist strategy. This involves transforming the majority of its natural resources locally, rather than exporting them in their raw state. You should know that Indonesia has, among other things, the largest reserves of nickel in the world – a key element in the battery sector. Prabowo also wants to move forward with the move of the Indonesian capital, a crazy project launched by his predecessor.

A mushroom city

Jakarta is suffocating under pollution and overpopulation. The city, built on swamps, is sinking. In 2019, Joko Widodo announced that he would build a new capital 1,200 km away, on the island of Borneo. This pharaonic project, estimated at 35 billion dollars, is already advanced and there is talk of an official inauguration next August. Indonesian authorities are targeting a population of nearly 2 million by 2045, for the centenary of the country’s proclamation of independence. Big problem: the environmental impacts promise to be disastrous, not to mention the costs. Left-wing presidential candidate Anies Baswedan strongly criticizes this megalomaniac project, arguing that Indonesia has “more urgent needs” than providing a new home for the president.

“The financing of the project will be crucial,” adds Alexandre Paquin-Pelletier. This is a colossal sum for any country, Indonesia in particular. The management of public funds and contracts will be decisive, because they risk being misused by corruption and cronyism, major problems in this country. »

The electorate’s priorities

According to an Indikator Politik Indonesia poll released in September, inflation and employment were cited as the top priorities of voters, particularly among young people. Indonesia’s unemployment rate was 5.3% in August, but 17% among young people aged 24 to 35. The election should also affirm the foreign policy of this country of 280 million inhabitants with a large Muslim majority. All three candidates have openly expressed their support for the Palestinian people. Prabowo says he will promote Palestinian independence, including opening an Indonesian embassy in the Palestinian territories. The new president and vice-president are expected to take office in October.

With France 24, the BBC, The Guardian, Nikkei AsiaEuronews, Agence France-Presse and GCR