Name : Ilham Aliyev
Age : 61 years old
Function : president of Azerbaijan
Distinctive signs : patriotism, power, petrodollars
Why are we talking about it
Azerbaijan this week regained definitive control of Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian enclave in Azeri territory. This operation is the last chapter of a “frozen” war which has opposed Azerbaijan and the Armenian separatists of the Republic of Artsakh since 1990. Since the start of the week, 100,000 Armenians have left the area to go into exile in Armenia, for fear of “ethnic cleansing”.
Why take back this territory
Control of Nagorno-Karabakh is an old dream for Ilham Aliev, president of Azerbaijan since 2003. This Armenian enclave, located in the heart of the country, was a thorn in his side for him.
“It’s all in the map [géographique], underlines Inna Naroditskaya, professor at Northwestern University in Chicago, originally from Azerbaijan. It’s as if the French city of Lyon was in the middle of Germany…” Aliev is not recognized as a “war merchant,” she adds. But the status of Nagorno-Karabakh was ambiguous and sooner or later this issue had to be resolved.”
According to Bahruz Samadov, an Azeri journalist based in the Czech Republic, Aliyev’s heightened nationalism is also at the heart of his motivations. “I wouldn’t say it was something personal, but it was a form of revenge,” explains Bahruz Samadov, an Azeri journalist based in the Czech Republic. After the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War [2020], he became very patriotic. However, Azeri nationalism has always implied antagonism with Armenia. »
The impact on his power
This major victory will likely increase Ilham Aliev’s standing in his own country, if not ensure his posterity. “At the moment, its legitimacy and popular support are very high,” notes Mr. Samadov. People identify with him. I believe that after that, and for several years, he will use it as a tool to heal the traumas of the Azeri people. »
“He was popular. It is even more so,” sums up Inna Naroditskaya simply.
A well-established clan
Ilham Aliev, however, does not need popular support. His regime is well established, the fruit of assumed autocratism. Son of a former KGB agent who reigned supreme over the country between 1969 and 2003 (Heydar Aliev), this former academic – who has long had a reputation as a gambler and casino enthusiast – is regularly accused of violating the human rights. In 2009, he amended the Constitution to make the number of presidential terms unlimited. In 2016, he extended the length of the presidential term from 5 to 7 years. In 2017, he appointed his wife, Mehriban Alieva, an ophthalmologist from a powerful Azerbaijani family, as first vice president. And it is likely that their son Heydar, 26, will succeed him. In short, the Aliev clan is not about to disappear.
Allegations of corruption…
With billions of dollars in oil windfall (Azerbaijan is a historic producer), Ilham Aliev was able to benefit from rapid economic growth. But the family’s fortune is a difficult issue to discuss openly in Azerbaijan. Investigations have found traces of companies offshore linked to the clan. The “Pandora Papers”, published in 2021 by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), reveal, for example, that people close to the president carried out opaque real estate transactions in the United Kingdom, including the purchase for $45 million of an office building in his son’s name. Ilham Aliev has always denied accusations of corruption and human rights violations against him.
An international image
Like his father before him, Ilham Aliev is widely courted by Europe, which is counting on Azeri oil and gas to reduce its dependence on Russia. Which would explain the relative silence of Europeans following the invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh. But it is on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who sells him weapons and supports him politically, that he counted on to make Armenia bend. In recent years, it has also tried to improve its image internationally, using its petrodollars to organize Formula 1 Grand Prix, Euro soccer matches and the Eurovision song contest.
Next stop: Nakhchivan?
According to some, the next step for Aliev will be the reopening of the Zangezur corridor. This strategic route, which passes through Armenia, is the only land link between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, an autonomous republic with an Azeri majority, landlocked between Armenia, Turkey and Iran. “Another file to settle,” observes Mme Naroditskaya. However, annexation is not for tomorrow, believes Bahruz Samadov. “In the short term, I do not expect a new conflict. There is already a lot of pressure on Azerbaijan. There may be negotiations. But in the short term, I would be surprised if there was an escalation…”
With Agence France-Presse, OC Media, The GuardianBBC, Eurasianet, DW, The world