Name : John Swinney
Age : 60 years
Function : Leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and First Minister of Scotland
Keywords : Old guard, divisions, independence, impasse, concerns
Why are we talking about it
Since Wednesday, Scotland has had a new Prime Minister in the person of John Swinney. This veteran of the independence cause was appointed new leader of the SNP (Scottish National Party) after the resignation of Humza Yousaf, forced to leave after ending his government coalition with the environmentalists. An ally of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon, Swinney was the only candidate in the running.
The right person
John Swinney is far from a newcomer to the Scottish political scene. An activist since the age of 15, he led the SNP between 2000 and 2004 when the party was in opposition, then served as Nicola Sturgeon’s deputy prime minister from 2014 to 2023. “He is considered to be part of the old guard of the party,” underlines Coree Brown Swan, specialist in British politics at the University of Stirling. “A bit boring” choice, adds the expert; in this sense, Swinney is a consensual figure. But given the turbulence that has shaken Scottish politics – and the SNP in particular – in recent years, it is also a “safe choice” capable of calming things down.
Rally the troops
Swinney takes the helm of the SNP in a particularly difficult context. With 63 seats out of 129 in the Scottish Parliament (Holyrood), the party still largely dominates the Scottish political scene. But it is eaten away by internal divisions that must be calmed. The leadership race which followed the departure of Nicola Sturgeon last year revealed fractures within the independence party, torn on social issues (gender change law) or on the means of access to independence. Advocating “open and respectful dialogue”, John Swinney reached out to the conservative wing of his party on Wednesday, appointing Kate Forbes, a devout Christian, anti-abortion and hostile to equal marriage, as deputy prime minister. A start of reconciliation.
Deadlock on independence
In his victory speech, John Swinney promised to focus on “the economy, jobs, the cost of living”, as well as the health care system, education and the climate crisis. But he only timidly addressed the question of Scottish independence, the SNP’s raison d’être. A dangerous strategy, according to Mme Swan Brown, “because it will not appease unionist political opponents and risks alienating activists for whom independence is the central issue”. This fight is currently at an impasse after the British Supreme Court ruled, at the end of 2022, that only the British government could authorize a new referendum, which considerably cooled the ardor of the separatists. The 2014 referendum was won by the No to independence vote with 55% of the vote.
Slow down plowing
John Swinney’s other big challenge will be to limit the rise of the Labor Party (Labour, left) in Scotland, in view of the general elections to come at the end of the year in the United Kingdom. In power since 2007, the SNP suffers from a form of attrition. In addition to the constitutional cul-de-sac, the party is weakened by an ongoing investigation into its finances, in which its former chief executive and husband of Nicola Sturgeon is charged with embezzlement. Labor, historically popular in Scotland, could take advantage of this context to regain ground against the separatists.
A poll that hurts
According to a Savanta survey/The Scotsman published on Friday, Labor receives 37% of voting intentions in the next British elections, compared to 33% for the SNP. The pro-independence party currently controls 43 of Scotland’s 59 constituencies, compared to just 2 for the Labor Party and 7 for the Conservatives. Another worrying sign for the SNP, Labor would match it, or even beat it, for part of the vote, in the elections to the Scottish Parliament, scheduled for May 2026 at the latest. According to Mme Swan Brown, the prospect of an electoral defeat could accelerate the unification of the SNP. But political fissures are likely to quickly re-emerge if the party does not perform well in the UK’s next general election.
With Agence France-Presse