floods in Greece and Libya are clearly linked to global warming

It was a strong hypothesis, but this time figures support it. The conclusion published Tuesday September 19 by scientists from the World Weather Attribution Group is that global warming has made floods ten times more likely in Greece, Bulgaria, Turkey and 50 times more likely in Libya.

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These scientists studied how storm Daniel behaved in the current climate, that is to say in a world warmer by 1.2° C compared to the pre-industrial period. Using climate models, they analyzed this same weather event in the context of the 1800s, when greenhouse gas emissions did not yet act as a warming blanket for the planet.

Their work joins previous studies which have already shown that warmer seas and oceans, which evaporate more, can transform classic storms into much more dangerous phenomena, including in dry regions. But these researchers also emphasize that climate change alone does not explain such a heavy toll.

The urgency of adapting infrastructure

The floods caused around thirty deaths in Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey, but for Libya, the UN cited a death toll of 11,000. These dramatic figures must also be linked to the vulnerability of infrastructure, these scientists insist. In Greece, most of the towns affected were located in flood zones, and in Libya, the lack of maintenance of the dams which collapsed contributed to worsening the toll.

Finally, the last lesson from this study: the rains that fell in Libya were particularly violent and exceptional and are only likely to recur once every 300 to 600 years. But concerning the Greece, Bulgaria, Turkey zone, this type of sudden and abundant precipitation, on the other hand, risks occurring approximately once every ten years, hence the urgency of adapting the infrastructures.