Five years after the election of Kaïs Saïed, observers denounce a return to dictatorship

Media censorship, imprisoned opponents… Democratically elected in October 2019, the head of state has seized all powers since his coup in July 2021.

The presidential election in Tunisia will take place on October 6, 2024. The incumbent president Kaïs Saïed is the big favorite. Facing him are two little-known candidates, one of whom has been in prison since last week. In 2019, the professor of constitutional law was overwhelmingly elected to correct a regime that was then considered ineffective and corrupt. Five years later, observers are denouncing a return to dictatorship, likening Kaïs Saïed to a new Ben Ali. The latest issue of Young Africa titling on “the hyper president Kaïs Saïed” is banned from sale in Tunisia. A censorship widely practiced by the former Tunisian autocrat.

How is dictatorship returning to Tunisia, described as the first Arab democracy since the 2011 revolution? It all goes back to July 25, 2021. On that day, Kaïs Saïed froze the work of Parliament and dismissed the Prime Minister. The lawyer invokes the blocking of institutions. Since the revolution, the parliamentary regime has not been able to produce a clear majority. Eleven governments have succeeded one another in 10 years. Kaïs Saïed promises to rationalize the system. Thousands of Tunisians take to the streets to support him. A large part of civil society also applauds.

Two months later, it was a cold shower. The president passed decrees that granted him almost full powers. In the new constitution ratified a year later, the presidentialization of the regime was enacted. For example, justice is no longer a power, but a simple function. The government can transfer judges at will. Political parties are prohibited from campaigning, when their offices are not closed as for Ennahdha. The Islamist party was the country’s leading party before the coup of 2021.

Once the surprise effect had passed, the opposition had difficulty organizing itself. A National Salvation Front was set up. But it brings together Islamists, liberals and left-wing activists. It was difficult for this front to have a coherent strategy. Civil society, which is very strong in Tunisia, had and still has difficulty reorganizing itself. Many activists still wonder how they were able to support July 25, 2021. Others have gone into exile.

There is repression, of course. Presidential decrees allow anyone to be arrested for the slightest criticism of the government. The main political leaders, ranging from Islamists to those nostalgic for the Ben Ali regime, are currently in prison. Some for more than 18 months, with no trial date. Journalists, lawyers, and human rights activists are also imprisoned. Conspiracy, preferably from abroad, is the watchword of the regime. It is used to justify political arrests, but also to explain inflation and the shortage of certain basic food products.

In 2011, the revolution started with the self-immolation of a street vendor. Today, more than anger, we can feel disenchantment rising among the population. Tunisians no longer believe in political representatives. Financially, families are struggling to make ends meet. Meat prices have skyrocketed. As for subsidized products such as sugar, bread, and oil, they are regularly in short supply because the state no longer has the means to import them.

The great confidence that Kaïs Saïed enjoys is beginning to erode. During the two previous elections, legislative and local elections, participation had been around 12%. The main issue in the presidential election will therefore be the turnout figure.