Ethiopian rebels in Tigray and the federal government, who clash in northern Ethiopia, have recently shown their willingness to participate in talks under the aegis of the African Union (AU). But this glimmer of hope quickly gave way to concern due to the resumption of fighting after months of truce. A look back at this deadly conflict that has lasted for almost two years.
1 Tigray, an autonomous region
With more than 110 million inhabitants, Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa. It is a federal republic divided into 10 autonomous regions, including Tigray, whose capital is Mekele. This territory, larger than Switzerland, is located in the north of the country, on the border of Eritrea and Sudan. The region is populated by nearly six million inhabitants, mostly of the Tigrayan ethnic group, which represents about 6% of the total population of Ethiopia.
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2The beginning of the war
Officially, the war started in November 2020 with an offensive launched by the central government to overthrow the rebel Tigray authorities from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The party that rules the autonomous region has been accused of attacking federal army bases in Tigray. But the conflict dates back to 2018 with the arrival of new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Oromo origin, the country’s largest ethnic group. The latter gradually removed from federal power the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which had been a major political force in Ethiopia since 1991.
3The main actors in the conflict
The war primarily pits the central Ethiopian government against the regional government of Tigray. However, the conflict has rekindled old feuds and many sides have taken part, as Fisseha Tikele, a researcher at Amnesty International, explains. “Generally speaking, anyone who had a grievance against the TPLF and its past governance of Ethiopia lent their support to the Federal Government“, specifies the specialist in Ethiopia. He cites the case of the regions of Amhara and Afar which border the Tigray but especially that of Eritrea, neighboring country, and former enemy which was involved militarily on After denying it for a long time, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed finally admitted the commitment of Eritrean troops in Tigray.
4Catastrophic consequences
The deadly violence that has lasted for nearly two years has left thousands dead and caused the displacement of more than two million people. This forgotten war was marked by multiple abuses – massacres, rapes and torture – committed by “all parties“, according to a joint investigation by the UN and the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission. The conflict has had consequences “huge” on civilians according to Amnesty International. Hundreds of thousands of people are now in near-starvation conditions. World Health Organization (WHO) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, from the Tigray region, talks about “the worst disaster in the world“.
5What are the chances of peace?
The Tigray rebels announced on September 11, 2022 that they were ready for talks under the aegis of the AU. An option they had always rejected until then. The Ethiopian central government assured, for its part, that there remained “engaged” in AU peace talks.
Theoretically, both parties say they are ready to end the armed conflict in northern Ethiopia. Special envoys, American and European, have been trying since August 2022 to encourage the belligerents to start formal negotiations. But their mediation has so far failed to slow down the resumption of fighting. If the international community and donor countries put pressure, they could be heard. Both the rebel authorities in Tigray and the government in Addis Ababa have every interest in coming out of isolation and ending a war”probably unwinnable“, as the International Crisis Group explains.