Five things that have changed

On March 24, Ottawa and Washington agreed to close the gaps in the Safe Third Country Agreement. Result: Roxham Road has regained its calm. If more than 100 migrants used it every day to enter Canada, from January to March 2023, there has been only one per day – on average – since April. But this has not reduced the strong pressure on asylum seekers. On the contrary, their number is always increasing.

1. Flow increases

The available data, covering the first eight months of 2023, confirm this trend: Canada welcomed 81,171 applicants, compared to 53,450 for the same period of 2022.

Analysis of the month-by-month data also shows that the closure of Roxham Road did not really slow down the flow. At the start of 2023, due to the approximately 4,000 entries per month through this access, the total monthly asylum applications in Canada reached approximately 10,000. After a drop to 6,885 in April and to 8,840 in May, applications subsequently picked up again to reach a record level of 12,620 in August.

As a result, Canada’s reception capacity is still in demand and pressures remain strong on resources.

The Quebec government’s reception program, PRAIDA, with a capacity of 1,150 places in two accommodation sites, is always full with an occupancy rate of 100%.

On the federal side, at the beginning of September, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) rented 810 rooms in 10 hotels in the Montreal region to house asylum seekers.

2. Their journey

If the number of potential refugees has not decreased, what has changed are the ways of entering Canada. RCMP interceptions, almost all of which were in Quebec due to Roxham Road, plummeted from more than 4,000 per month at the start of the year to around 50 per month starting in April.

However, air entries have exploded, from around 1,500 per month at the start of the year to 3,970 in July and 3,220 in August.

These asylum seekers who arrive by plane are not people who, because land passage was no longer accessible, simply changed their mode of transportation to try to enter Canada: they come from other countries. This air route therefore does not replace that of Roxham Road, especially since it had started to take off at the start of 2022, going from 740 in January of last year to 2040 in December.

In other words, if the Roxham Road had remained open, thousands of refugees would most likely still have used it, and Canada would have had to welcome 30,000 or 40,000 more refugees this year.

“We thought we would have a respite, but nothing has changed because tourist visa holders are turning into asylum seekers. This time, it is not on the side of Haiti, but of French-speaking Africa,” explains Ousseynou NDiaye, director of the organization Un route pour tous, located in Montreal North.

3. Their origin

The countries of birth of these new applicants are no longer the same. A year ago, nationals from Mexico, Haiti and Colombia dominated. Now they come a lot from Africa. According to PRAIDA, the countries of birth are, in order of importance, Mexico, Congo-Kinshasa, Chad and Senegal.

In the case of Mexicans, arriving by plane is facilitated by the fact that they can enter Canada without a visa. Those who come from African countries have visas, unlike those who arrived irregularly.

Generally speaking, their profile is not the same as that of people who crossed the Americas before setting foot in Canada irregularly. There are fewer children, fewer families, and more people who have more means, according to Stephan Reichhold, director of the Table de concertation des organizations serving refugees and immigrants (TCRI).

We are also observing the growth of another sector, that of asylum seekers who do not declare themselves when entering the country, whether on foot, by plane or by car, to the Border Services Agency. of Canada (CBSA), but who apply to IRCC once on Canadian territory. Their number is increasing sharply. From an average of 2,000 per month in 2022, it increased to 7,985 for the month of August alone.

4. Their base

The closure of Roxham Road, which was the main gateway for asylum seekers into Canada, with 45% of the total, had another very significant impact. Quebec is no longer their main base.

In 2022, out of a total of 91,760 asylum seekers, including all modes of entry, 64%, or almost two thirds, ended up in Quebec, compared to 26,505 in Ontario, the second largest destination, i.e. 29%.

But since April, things have changed. For the post-Roxham months, from April to August, of the 50,560 asylum seekers in Canada, 24,185 made their request in Ontario, or 48%. The neighboring province thus becomes the main place of reception and is ahead of Quebec which, with 21,105 applicants, only represents 42% of the Canadian total.

5. The meaning of the passages

The Press went to Roxham Road to discover that the RCMP facilities were deserted. Only two orange cones stand guard on the dirt path that separates the United States from Quebec.

And above all, there is not a cat to guard the border and prevent migrants from entering Canada illegally. For what ? Because the commonly used expression, closing Roxham Road, is not entirely accurate. We didn’t really close the path, rather we ended the special status it enjoyed. If migrants try to use it, they will no longer be greeted as before by the RCMP and the CBSA. They will be arrested and deported to the United States unless they meet one of the exceptions under the Safe Third Country Agreement. As a result, very few people attempt the adventure.

Tents have already been dismantled and work to demolish the main building will begin on Monday.

“We continue to intercept migrants who enter the country illegally, but across the entire extent of our territory in Quebec,” specifies Sergeant Charles Poirier, from the RCMP communications office. We are also intercepting more and more migrants who are heading in the opposite direction, from Canada to the United States. »

Indeed, the number of interceptions of migrants attempting to enter the United States illegally is increasing. “More than 6,100 arrests from 76 different countries in just 11 months, more than the last 10 years combined,” wrote the head of the US Border Patrol for the Swanton sector, Robert Garcia, on the social network early September.