Ukraine expects a new surge of Russian forces, nearly a year after the start of the invasion of its territory. Witness, in particular, the intensification of fighting on the eastern front.
The conflict has been going on for a year, but it seems far from over. Ukraine even fears that a new stage in the war will soon be reached. “We are waiting for each other to a possible Russian offensive in February, purely symbolically”said Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov earlier this month. Two important dates appear on the calendar: Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers his State of the Nation address on February 21, while the 24th will mark the first anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine. In the meantime, there are many signs that Moscow is preparing for a new offensive. Franceinfo details them here.
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1 Fighting intensifies on the eastern front
Russia has recently stepped up its military efforts in eastern Ukraine, including through the paramilitary organization Wagner, according to the UK MoD’s Institute for War Studies. The Ukrainian presidency recognized on Monday a situation “complicated” around Bakhmout, the epicenter of fighting in the region. After several months marked by artillery duels without significant gains on the ground, Russian troops have made progress in recent weeks, notably north of the city, where they captured the town of Soledar in January. The Russian army also claimed Sunday the capture of the village of Krasna Gora, in the immediate vicinity of Paraskoviïvka.
Moscow is also on the offensive south of Bakhmout, around the small town of Vouhledar, targeted since the start of the invasion, because it “is located near a railway junction serving the east and the busy south of the country“, remember Release (article subscribers). The Ukrainian army also reported on Monday a “record number of bombings” near Lyman, further north, a town which had been abandoned by the Russians in October in the face of a powerful Ukrainian counter-offensive and where they had narrowly escaped encirclement.
“There The situation on the front line, particularly in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, remains extremely difficult. It is literally a battle for every meter of Ukrainian land”President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday. Under Russian bombs, Ukrainian soldiers are still resisting, but for how long?
2 Moscow bombed energy infrastructure
Sign of a redoubling of the Russian assault, Moscow carried out an attack on Friday “massive” with dozens of missiles against energy sites in Ukraine, according to kyiv. “Ukraine has temporarily lost 44% of its nuclear power generation capacity, 75% of its thermal power plant capacity and 33% of its cogeneration power plant capacity”detailed the Ukrainian Prime Minister, Denys Chmygal.
According to the Ministry of Energy, energy sites were affected in six regions of Ukraine, including that of kyiv. The last major Russian strikes dated back to the end of January, the day after the Westerners decided to deliver heavy tanks to the Ukrainian army.
3 NATO is launched in a logistics race
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg explained to the press on Monday that he feared that a new offensive had actually begun, reports Reuters*. “What we observe is that President Putin and Russia still want to control Ukraine. We can already see how they are sending more troops and artillery.”
An observation confirmed by the Ukrainian army. “It’s been a week since the Russian attack started and we expect more Russian troops to go on the offensive”declared Taras Berezovets, an officer of the Ukrainian special forces, to the FinancialTimes*. The newspaper also notes that Moscow has established new military camps near the Russian cities of Voronezh and Kursk, “exactly where [la Russie] had positioned his troops a year ago, just before the invasion”.
Time is running out for Westerners, meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday in Brussels. They are engaged in a logistical race to speed up their deliveries of arms and ammunition to Ukraine. “The priority, the urgency, is to provide the Ukrainians with the armaments they have been promised to maintain their ability to defend themselves”, insisted Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday, as discussions on the possibility of sending fighter planes continue. The day before, thehe NATO Secretary General was concerned that kyiv was using more ammunition than the Atlantic Alliance was currently producing.
4 Washington asks its nationals to leave Russia
The concern of Western countries has increased in recent days. The United States has again asked its nationals present in Russia to leave the country immediately on Monday, reports RFI. Washington had made the same request in September at the time of the mobilization decreed by Vladimir Putin.
France for its part renewed, at the beginning of the week, its request to nationals living in Belarus to leave the territory. The country is one of Moscow’s only allies and had opened its soil to the Russian army to allow it to launch the invasion of neighboring Ukraine.
5 Moldova denounces attempts to destabilize Moscow
On Monday, Moldovan President Maia Sandu accused Russia of wanting to overthrow the pro-European power in place in Chișinău. The government explained that it had access to documents intercepted by the Ukrainian secret services. “The objective is to overthrow the constitutional order and replace the legitimate power of Chisinau by an illegitimate power (…) with the aim of stopping the process of integration into the EU”explained the Head of State.
According to her, the Kremlin is counting on “involvement of internal forces” and on the possible arrival of Russian, Belarusian, Serbian and Montenegrin nationals in the territory. These accusations have been denied by Moscow.
*Links followed by an asterisk are in English.