After more than six weeks of fighting, an agreement was reached on Wednesday between Israel and Hamas for the release of 50 hostages taken to Gaza on October 7 in exchange for the release of 150 Palestinian prisoners and a four-day pause in hostilities. The next few hours will be crucial to determine whether the agreement will be respected by both camps and whether it could open the door to further negotiations. Decryption in five questions.
Can this break in fighting be called a truce?
Yes, it is a truce, but not a ceasefire. This four-day cessation of fighting, negotiated by Qatar, is expected to come into effect on Thursday morning. A possible extension was mentioned. But already, the Israeli Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, has said he wants a “full force” resumption of Israeli strikes as soon as this pause ends.
How will the release of the 50 hostages and 150 Palestinian prisoners take place?
According to Miloud Chennoufi, professor at the Canadian Forces College in Toronto, the hostages could be handed over to a third party. “The closest intermediary is Egypt,” he says. A minimum of 10 hostages are expected to be released each day, accompanied by three times as many Palestinian prisoners. These are children and women who will be released by both camps.
Some 239 hostages were reportedly taken to Gaza on October 7. “But we don’t know how many survived the Israeli bombings,” underlines Yakov Rabkin, professor of history at the University of Montreal. According to an AFP count, Hamas took at least 35 children hostage, including 18 aged 10 and under. Israel, for its part, released a list of 300 prisoners who could be released, including 123 young people under the age of 18.
Mr. Chennoufi believes that the ratio of one to three is entirely “justifiable”. According to Amnesty International, since October 7, more than 2,200 Palestinians have been arrested by Israel, which already detained around 5,000 Palestinians. “The proportion, for me, makes sense, even if Hamas had wanted to obtain much more. »
Yakov Rabkin recalls that Israel already agreed in 2011 to exchange a single Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, held captive for five years by Hamas, for 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.
Who, Israel or Hamas, was in a strong position during the negotiations?
According to Mr. Rabkin, it is clear that Israel is still in a position of strength. “There is no common measure between the two [belligérants] “, he believes. Despite this dominant position, international pressure on Israel has increased recently. “I believe that Israel would not have given in [pour la trêve] if there had not been pressure from the United States. This is the main factor. »
An opinion shared by Mr. Chennoufi. A Reuters-Ipsos poll released last week revealed that 68% of American respondents called for a ceasefire, he points out. At the same time, an NBC News poll revealed Sunday that Joe Biden’s approval rating reached 40%, its lowest level since the start of his presidency. His handling of the war between Israel and Hamas is the main factor singled out.
In addition, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government was under strong pressure from the families of the hostages to resolve the situation. “If he didn’t give something to the families of the hostages, it was going to become politically untenable for him,” said Mr. Chennoufi.
But “if the two belligerents decided to negotiate, it is because each was aware of its own weaknesses,” he believes. If Israel still believed that it was possible to free the hostages by military force and that Hamas believed that it was able to continue to resist and absorb losses, they would not have accepted this agreement, continues Mr. Chennoufi.
Could this pause in fighting contribute to significantly easing the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza?
During the four days of truce, “at least 200 to 300 trucks [d’aide humanitaire]including eight trucks of fuel and gas” are expected to enter Gaza, according to Hamas.
“It’s good, but it’s a drop in the ocean,” emphasizes Mr. Rabkin. And once the truce ends, “the Palestinians in Gaza will continue to risk dying every day, either from bombings, hunger or thirst,” Mr. Chennoufi in turn deplores.
What will happen after the truce?
According to Mr. Rabkin, there is little appetite in Israel to negotiate a lasting political solution with the Palestinians. “I believe that the Israelis themselves do not know what they want,” he said, adding that it is obvious to him that there is no “military solution” to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. , but only a “political solution”.
“The problem with wars is that you have to have a political objective. And Israel’s political objective currently does not exist,” underlines Mr. Chennoufi. Even if Israel succeeds in eliminating Hamas, “they will not be able to destroy the idea of Palestinian resistance.”
In the immediate future, the war could resume with a vengeance, against the backdrop of the political crisis which has raged in Israel in recent months. “Netanyahu’s political future depends on the continuation of the war. His political opponents [qui se sont ralliés à lui après les attaques du Hamas] are only waiting for the first opportunity to oust him from power, which means that he will have to face the judicial system for corruption cases,” adds Mr. Chennoufi.