five questions on the expected vote of the US Congress on aid to kyiv

In a bipartisan effort between Democrats and Republicans, elected representatives of the House of Representatives must vote on Saturday a highly anticipated aid package of 61 billion euros.

Ukraine and its allies have their eyes fixed on the American Congress. After months of procrastination, the House of Representatives, with a Republican majority, could finally reach an agreement, Saturday April 20, on a major aid plan of 61 billion euros for Ukraine, supported by elected officials from both edges. They will vote at the same time on aid to Taiwan and on a possible ban on the TikTok application attached to this bill. Parliamentarians must vote from 1 p.m. (7 p.m. in Paris) on this envelope requested for months by President Joe Biden. If all the measures are adopted, they will be examined by the Senate immediately. Franceinfo answers five questions about this vote.

What does the text of the agreement contain?

The House of Representatives’ plan is divided into four parts and contains an aid package of 95 billion dollars (around 89 billion euros), with, first of all, a package of 61 billion dollars for Ukraine (57 billion euros). This package mainly includes military and economic assistance, but it also authorizes President Joe Biden to confiscate and sell Russian assets so that they can be used to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine. This idea is gaining ground among other G7 countries.

The agreement also provides aid of 26 billion dollars for Israel (including 13 billion in military assistance), at war with Hamas, underlines the New York Times. These funds will be used in particular to strengthen the anti-missile shield of the United States’ historic ally, the “Iron Dome”. More than 9 billion dollars are also planned for “meeting the urgent need for humanitarian assistance in Gaza and other vulnerable populations around the world”according to a summary of the text consulted by AFP.

As Joe Biden had called for, this bill also devotes $8 billion to stand up to China militarily by investing in submarines, and to help Taiwan. It also provides for the ban on TikTok in the United States, unless the social network cuts its ties with its parent company ByteDance, and more broadly with China. The video platform is accused of allowing Beijing to spy on and manipulate its 170 million users in the United States. The Biden administration said “very favorable” to all these measures.

Why is it happening now?

The Biden administration has been seeking to obtain a new aid package for Ukraine for months, but until now it was met with a clear refusal from the conservatives. Unveiled on Wednesday, the new texts are the result of months of intense negotiations, marked by visits by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Washington and pressure from allies around the world.

The United States is kyiv’s main military supporter, but Congress has not passed a support plan for its ally in nearly a year and a half, mainly due to partisan infighting. The Republicans, pressured by Donald Trump, are increasingly reluctant to finance a conflict which is getting bogged down. In the middle of an election year, the issue has transformed into a remote duel between the two presidential candidates.

After months of procrastination, the Republican leader of the House, Mike Johnson, ended up supporting a package of 61 billion dollars for Ukraine. “To put it bluntly: I would rather send ammunition to Ukraine than send our boys to fight”he pleaded, not without a certain emotion, during a press conference.

“A part of the moderate Republican electorate would not understand that the Republicans, through their political blockade, could contribute to the fall of Ukraine”analyzed on franceinfo Jean-Claude Beaujour, lawyer in international law and specialist in the United States.

What are the chances for the text to succeed?

A first vote on Friday made it possible to take the temperature in the House of Representatives. By bringing their votes in a rare bipartisan momentum, Democrats allowed Mike Johnson’s plan to be examined on Saturday with the organization of separate votes on each text. The vote for this procedural step garnered 316 votes in favor and 94 against, with Republicans and Democrats on both sides.

Republicans have a narrow majority in the House, with 219 conservative representatives to 212 for Democrats. If the House passes the bill, enactment could be a matter of days. The leader of the Democrats in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, promised that his parliamentarians “would act quickly” after the vote in the House. And Joe Biden has already announced that he will sign the text “immediately to send a message to the world”.

What could be the consequences for kyiv on the front?

The adoption of this envelope would reassure the allies of the United States and the supporters of Ukraine. In a context of great difficulty for the Kiev army on the ground, the spokesperson for the Democratic president, Karine Jean-Pierre, stressed that the flow of American aid to Ukraine would resume “immediately” after the adoption of this text by both houses of Congress.

For its part, kyiv is getting impatient. “We can no longer wait for decisions to be made. I ask you to take our requests into consideration as quickly as possible”, Volodymyr Zelensky said again on Friday, according to comments reported by his services. In particular, he is calling for at least seven additional Patriot anti-aircraft systems, two days after a particularly deadly Russian strike which left 18 dead on Wednesday in Chernihiv. “As long as Russia has the advantage in the air and can rely on terror carried out by drones and rockets, our capabilities on the ground are unfortunately limited”recognized the Ukrainian president.

Could Donald Trump reverse this funding if he was elected in November?

Without directly opposing this new aid, the former president estimated in recent days on his social network Truth Social that the United States must “stop giving money without expecting to be reimbursed”. He once again appealed to the Europeans, whom he accused of not spending enough on their defense. However, the texts presented to the Chamber provide for opening additional appropriations for the budget year ending September 30. Therefore, the next presidential election next November and the possible return of the conservative billionaire will not be able to hinder this aid plan.

On the other hand, the bill is currently fracturing the Republican camp, making the future of “speaker” Mike Johnson in his position uncertain. Conservative elected officials have promised to do everything to remove the leader of the Republicans. Mike Johnson plunged the party “in chaos serving Democrats and adopting Biden’s agenda”, declared elected official Marjorie Taylor Greene. Mike Johnson’s predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, had already been dismissed last year, while the Trumpist wing accused him of “secret agreement” with the Democrats on Ukraine.