A lightning attack. In a matter of hours, the Lebanese Hezbollah launched, on Sunday, August 25, hundreds of drones and rockets against military targets in Israel. For its part, the Israeli army claims to have carried out preemptive strikes in Lebanon to prevent a “large-scale attack”. If the Shiite Islamist movement announced that his attack was “finished” for Sunday and had achieved its objectives, the state of emergency was extended to the whole of Israel and the United States said “ready to support” their ally.
What did this attack from Lebanese soil consist of?
In a statement issued from Beirut, Lebanon, Hezbollah announced shortly before 6 a.m. (5 a.m. local time) that it had launched “an air attack using a large number of drones” on Israeli territory and in particular against a “important military target” which he did not initially identify. The powerful pro-Iranian party added that it had fired “more than 320” Katyusha rockets on 11 military bases in Israel and the Syrian Golan Heights, occupied by Israel. For its part, the Israeli army claimed on X that Hezbollah had fired “more than 150 projectiles from Lebanon towards Israel”.
The attack targeted the “Israeli barracks and positions to facilitate the passage of attack drones” towards Israeli territory “in depth”explains Hezbollah, which exercises a preponderant influence in Lebanon. Hezbollah then claimed that its attack was “finished” for Sunday and that she had “completed successfully”. In a televised address, its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, clarified that thehas “main target of the operation” was “Glilot base, the main Israeli military intelligence base” “110 km from the border”According to Israeli media, it houses the headquarters of Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service.
What was Israel’s maneuver to foil it?
A little before 5 a.m. (4 a.m. in mainland France), the Israeli army announced that it had launched preemptive strikes in Lebanon to foil “large-scale attacks” after observing dit is “Hezbollah preparations” “against Israeli territory”. “Anyone in the vicinity of areas where Hezbollah operates must leave immediately to protect themselves and their families.”she had urged. Morning flights to Tel Aviv were immediately delayed or diverted.
During this operation, “A hundred planes hit thousands of rocket launchers aimed at northern Israel in 40 firing zones in southern Lebanon”detailed a military spokesman, Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani. According to him, the Hezbollah shots were part of a “planned attack as more important and we were able to foil a good part of it this morning.”
About 100 air force fighter jets struck and destroyed thousands of Hezbollah rocket launchers, which were ready to fire immediately towards northern and central Israel.
More than 40 Hezbollah launch sites were targeted.
We will do whatever it takes… pic.twitter.com/wCwLavm8cy
— Tsahal (@Tsahal_IDF) August 25, 2024
“We are still assessing the damage caused by the attack. [et] there are still firesadded the same source. But I can tell you that the damage is minor.” on the Israeli side. According to the army, the Glilot base, targeted, “was not touched”.
Hezbollah, for its part, denied the “false allegations” Israel’s attack on rocket launchers. According to the Shiite movement’s Al-Manar TV channel, the Israeli raids targeted the forests of Kounin Rashf, al-Tayri, Beit Yahoun, al-Khardali, Zawtar, Iqlim al-Tuffah and al-Rayhan in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese Health Ministry reported of at least three dead. The Israeli army for its part announced the death of a marine in the north of the country.
What is the context of this Hezbollah offensive?
For weeks, the international community has said it fears a regional military escalation between Iran and its allies on the one hand and Israel on the other, at a time when the war in Gaza continues. The day after the Hamas attack on October 7 in Israel, Hezbollah also opened a front against Israel. Since then, the border between the two countries has been caught in a spiral of violence.
Tens of thousands of people have been displaced in an area emptied of most of its inhabitants. Israel wants to allow them to return home and, if necessary, declare war on the Shiite militia. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu swore on Sunday morning to “do everything” for the “security” people from the north of the country and announced a meeting of the security cabinet. During the ccouncil of ministers, he warned that Israel had not said “his last word” with its dawn strikes on southern Lebanon. His Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, declared a state of emergency in Israel for 48 hours, saying “convinced that there is a high probability that an attack will be carried out against the civilian population also in other areas of the country”.
This offensive by Hezbollah, armed and financed by Iran, Israel’s sworn enemy, also comes a month after the death of one of its military leaders, Fouad Chokr, killed on July 30 in an Israeli strike on the southern suburbs of Beirut. “It is an almost Pavlovian and expected response to this assassination”analysis for franceinfo Sébastien Boussois, doctor of political science and researcher specializing in the Middle East. Hezbollah, as well as Iran and the Palestinian Hamas, had also threatened to respond to the assassination attributed to Israel of the former leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on July 31.
How is the international community reacting?
The United States, Israel’s main supporter, said “ready to support” the defense of the Hebrew state. “We continue to monitor the situation closely and have been very clear that the United States stands ready to support Israel’s defense.”a Pentagon spokesman said in a statement. Later in the day, a senior U.S. defense official said the United States had helped the Israeli military monitor and track early on the Lebanese Hezbollah’s fire into Israel but had not intervened directly.
The UN coordinator in Lebanon and the peacekeepers deployed there, as well as the Lebanese Prime Minister, called for de-escalation. They stressed the need for a “return to cessation of hostilities, followed by the implementation of resolution 1701” of the UN, which had confirmed the end of the war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.
It is in this explosive context that the negotiators in Cairo were supposed to continue their discussions on Sunday to try to reach an agreement on a truce in the Gaza Strip. This latest round of talks was launched on Thursday in the Egyptian capital in the presence of the heads of Israeli foreign and domestic intelligence, David Barnea and Ronen Bar, the director of the CIA, William Burns, the White House coordinator for the Middle East, Brett McGurk, as well as the heads of Egyptian and Qatari intelligence.
Does this attack foreshadow an escalation in the region?
For David Rigoulet-Roze, associate researcher at Iris, specializing in the Middle East region, a “threshold is crossed” in the “long-term war” which Israel and Hezbollah have been engaged in since the attack of October 7. “What is worrying is that the Shiite movement would clearly have taken the decision for a large-scale attack, with a potentially high risk of escalation if the Israeli preventive operation had not taken place”analyzes the specialist for franceinfo. “In the language elements available, everyone says they are satisfied, he continues. The Israeli preemptive operation has apparently been effective, and Hezbollah, for its part, has been able to demonstrate its proactive strategy in its solidarity with the Palestinian cause. But this still raises questions for the future, as the ‘how far is too far’ syndrome prevails for all parties.”
For Bertrand Badie, specialist in international relations and professor emeritus at Sciences Po Paris, guest on franceinfo on Sunday, “Hezbollah has no interest in an all-out war” because he “would have a lot to lose in a country that he almost institutionally controls today”. But the movement “nor can it let things happen when one of its leaders is killed by the Israeli army”According to the specialist, the Lebanese movement is developing a “new strategy”in alliance with Iran, which consists of “maintain a situation of uncertainty”.
“It is highly profitable for Hezbollah, which gives the impression of being the master of the game. It is the one that decides when to increase the pressure and attention or not. We do not know at what moment or in what form this may occur.”
Bertrand Badie, international relations specialiston franceinfo
What about Iran’s involvement in this attack and the risk of regional conflagration? Even though Tehran has promised to respond to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh on its soil, the Islamic Republic of Iran is “increasingly on a line of delay and involvement in ceasefire negotiations”believes researcher Sébastien Boussois. According to him, the American electoral calendar is not unrelated to this positioning: “If everything goes wrong at the time of the presidential elections, it is clear that this will probably work in favor of the Republican candidate and against the Democratic camp. However, Iran knows that if Donald Trump returns to power, it will be much worse for its fate.”