Five questions about the major attack by Lebanese Hezbollah that Israel claims to have partly foiled

The Shiite Islamist movement launched hundreds of drones and rockets against military targets in Israel on Sunday, which had anticipated the attack by hitting thousands of rocket launchers.

A lightning attack. In a matter of hours, the Lebanese Hezbollah launched, on Sunday, August 25, hundreds of drones and rockets against military targets in Israel. For its part, the Israeli army claims to have carried out preemptive strikes in Lebanon to prevent a “large-scale attack”. If the Shiite Islamist movement announced that his attack was “finished” for Sunday and had achieved its objectives, the state of emergency was extended to the whole of Israel and the United States said “ready to support” their ally.

What did this attack from Lebanese soil consist of?

In a statement issued from Beirut, Lebanon, Hezbollah announced shortly before 6 a.m. that it had launched “an air attack using a large number of drones” on Israeli territory and in particular against a “important military target” that he did not identify. The powerful pro-Iranian party added that it had fired “more than 320” Katyusha rockets on 11 military bases in Israel and the Syrian Golan Heights, occupied by Israel. For its part, the Israeli army claimed on X that Hezbollah had fired “more than 150 projectiles from Lebanon towards Israel”.

The attack targeted the “Israeli barracks and positions to facilitate the passage of attack drones” towards Israeli territory “in depth”explains Hezbollah, which exercises a preponderant influence in Lebanon. Hezbollah then claimed that its attack was “finished” for Sunday and that she had “completed successfully”. Its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, will speak at 5 p.m. on “the latest developments” of this attack.

What was Israel’s response?

The Israeli army launched air raids to thwart the attack.

“We are observing Hezbollah’s preparations for large-scale attacks against Israeli territory,” the Israeli army wrote in an Arabic message to residents of southern Lebanon. “Anyone near areas where Hezbollah operates must leave immediately to protect themselves and their families,” it urged.

Morning flights to Tel Aviv delayed or diverted

Main objective: “Eliminate threats to Israeli citizens.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to “do everything” for the “security” people from the north of the country and announced an early morning security cabinet meeting. His Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, declared a state of emergency in Israel for 48 hours, saying “convinced that there is a high probability that an attack will be carried out against the civilian population also in other areas of the country”.

“A little before 5 a.m.” (4 hours in mainland France), the Israeli Air Force launched “a complex operation during which a hundred planes struck thousands of rocket launchers aimed at northern Israel in 40 firing zones in southern Lebanon”detailed a military spokesman, Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani. According to him, the Hezbollah shots were part of a “planned attack as more important and we were able to foil a good part of it this morning.”

About 100 air force fighter jets struck and destroyed thousands of Hezbollah rocket launchers, which were ready to fire immediately towards northern and central Israel.

More than 40 Hezbollah launch sites were targeted.

We will do whatever it takes… pic.twitter.com/wCwLavm8cy

— Tsahal (@Tsahal_IDF) August 25, 2024

“We are still assessing the damage caused by the attack. [et] there are still firesadded the same source. But I can tell you that the damage is minor.” on the Israeli side.

Hezbollah has denied these “allegations”. According to the Shiite movement’s Al-Manar TV channel, the Israeli raids targeted the forests of Kounin Rashf, al-Tayri, Beit Yahoun, al-Khardali, Zawtar, Iqlim al-Tuffah and al-Rayhan in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese Health Ministry reported of at least three dead.

What is the context of this offensive?

For weeks, the international community has said it fears a regional military escalation between Iran and its allies on the one hand and Israel on the other, at a time when the war in Gaza continues. The day after the Hamas attack on October 7 in Israel, Hezbollah also opened a front against Israel. Since then, the border between the two countries has been caught in a spiral of violence.

Armed and financed by Iran, Israel’s sworn enemy, Hezbollah recently threatened Lebanon’s neighbor Israel with retaliation after one of its military leaders, Fouad Shokr, was killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs on July 30. Hezbollah, along with Iran and the Palestinian Hamas, also threatened to respond to the assassination, attributed to Israel, of former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31.

How is the international community reacting?

The United States, Israel’s main supporter, said “ready to support” the defense of the Hebrew state. “We continue to monitor the situation closely and have been very clear that the United States stands ready to support Israel’s defense.”a Pentagon spokesperson said in a statement.

It is in this explosive context that the negotiators in Cairo were supposed to continue their discussions on Sunday to try to reach an agreement on a truce in the Gaza Strip. This latest round of talks was launched on Thursday in the Egyptian capital in the presence of the heads of Israeli foreign and domestic intelligence, David Barnea and Ronen Bar, the director of the CIA, William Burns, the White House coordinator for the Middle East, Brett McGurk, as well as the heads of Egyptian and Qatari intelligence.

Does this attack foreshadow an escalation in the region?

According to Bertrand Badie, specialist in international relations and professor emeritus at Sciences Po Paris, guest on franceinfo on Sunday, “Hezbollah has no interest in an all-out war” because he “would have a lot to lose in a country that he almost institutionally controls today”. But the movement “nor can it let things happen when one of its leaders is killed by the Israeli army”According to the specialist, the Lebanese movement is developing a “new strategy”in alliance with Iran, which consists of “maintain a situation of uncertainty”.

“It is highly profitable for Hezbollah, which gives the impression of being the master of the game. It is the one that decides when to increase the pressure and attention or not. We do not know at what moment or in what form this may occur.”

Bertrand Badie, international relations specialist

on franceinfo

As for Iran’s involvement in this attack, the researcher considers that even if it is not excluded that there was a “consultation between Tehran and the leaders of the Lebanese Shiite movement”, “We should not exaggerate this mechanical link between Hezbollah and the Islamic Republic of Iran”. “They each have their own interests, each have their own game, and they may even have an interest in dissociating their game and the way in which they express their responses.”observes Bertrand Badie.