five questions about the future of the Russian militia led by Yevgeny Prigozhin

A troubled future and an existence in suspense. After the rebellion launched by Wagner’s leader, Evguéni Prigojine, Friday June 23, then its reverse 24 hours later, the future of the members of the Russian paramilitary group and their leader seems very uncertain. “Will they continue to exist? What will they be called? Who will they report to?”the Russian elected official Andrei Kartapolov, deputy to the Duma, asked the newspaper Sunday Vedomostiraise it New York Times. “We must determine the future”he said, adding: “We probably have to change their direction, appoint someone who will be more loyal”. Here are five questions about the post-rebellion fate of the Wagner group.

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1What does the Kremlin now offer Wagner’s men?

Vladimir Poutine spoke Monday evening, a few hours after the diffusion of an audio message of Evguéni Prigojine. “We know that the overwhelming majority of fighters and commanders of the Wagner Group are also Russian patriots, devoted to their people and their state”, said the Russian president. The Institute For the Study of War (ISW), an American think tank, notes that the head of state makes a good distinction between Wagner’s paramilitaries as a whole and the leaders of the rebellion.

In his speech, Vladimir Putin offers three options to the militia fighters: “Continue your service for Russia by signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense or any other security agency, or return home. Those who wish are free to travel to Belarus.” Yevgeny Prigojine has already opted for this third way, as confirmed on Tuesday afternoon by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who announced the arrival on his soil of the leader of Wagner.

Through his speech, the Russian President “sought to convince as many Wagner fighters and leaders as possible to join the Russian army and continue to fight against Ukraine”, analyzes the ISW. In making these remarks, Vladimir Putin attempted “to ensure that the individuals most loyal to Yevgeny Prigojine self-identify”.

2Will members of the paramilitary group really be able to join the regular army?

For the ISW, Wagner could “no longer exist as a separate or unitary entity” after this rebellion. In early June, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the military “volunteers” had to sign contracts before July 1. With the events of Friday and Saturday, the Kremlin could decide to “dismantle Wagner forces operating in Ukraine to reinforce existing military formations”, or pushing militia members to join other private military companies affiliated with the Department of Defense, analyzes the US think tank.

Can certain members of the Russian army be integrated easily? “At the level of the base troops, I don’t think there will be too many problems. But it seems unlikely to me that some lieutenants within Wagner will line up behind the Ministry of Defense after what has happened. pass”, believes Ulrich Bounat, associate researcher at Open Diplomacy and author of Hybrid warfare in Ukraine, what prospects? (ed. of the Swan). “It’s a bit of a complicated business. There are former prisoners among Wagner’s members, fighters may not find their place in the regular army”, adds Carole Grimaud, geopolitical analyst specializing in Russia.

The start of the dislocation of the militia seemed to have begun at the start of the week. On Monday, Paval Krasheninnikov, chairman of the Duma Committee on Legislation and State Building, said that private military companies – like Wagner – could no longer recruit convicted persons. From now on, “IContracts are concluded only with the Ministry of Defence”, he added, quoted by the Russian agency Interfax. The Russian Defense Ministry also announced on Tuesday that “preparations are underway for the transfer of heavy military equipment from Wagner to active units of the armed forces”.

3What awaits militia fighters in Belarus?

The Russian independent media Vertska reported on Monday the construction of new camps in Belarus for Wagner fighters, including one in Assipovichy, in the Mogilev region, 200 km from Ukraine, supposed to be able to accommodate about 8,000 men. But Alexander Lukashenko denied this information on Tuesday afternoon. “We are not building a camp yet”assured the Belarusian president, specifying however that the men of Wagner could install tents on disused sectors, and that the authorities could bring their assistance.

Vladimir Putin’s ally also believes that there will never be a recruiting center for the Wagner Group in his country. He further assured that these fighters will never be tasked with monitoring tactical nuclear weapons that are transferred to Belarusian territory from Russia. “It’s our mission”with the Russians, “and I’m the Senior Arms Security Officer”.

“Belarus will only offer Prigozhin or Wagner’s fighters refuge if the Kremlin puts pressure [sur Minsk]“, warns the ISW. “The Kremlin will likely view the Wagner Group personnel following Prigozhin in Belarus as traitors whether or not it takes immediate action against them.” And to add: “Wagner Group personnel in Belarus are unlikely to remain immune from Russian extradition orders.” “Proposing exile in Belarus is a kind of poisoned gift, a way of controlling them, but from a distance”, abounds geopolitical analyst Carole Grimaud.

4Will there be other prosecutions after the rebellion?

After Yevgeni Prigojine’s about-face on Saturday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced that “the criminal case will be dropped against him. No one will persecute [les combattants de Wagner]taking into account their merits at the front”. On Tuesday, the Russian security services (FSB) confirmed that “the abandonment of the proceedings has been decided”, because the participants in the rebellion “have ceased their actions aimed directly at committing a crime”.

Vladimir Putin continued to call them traitors “the leaders of this mutiny”, during his speech on Monday evening. For Ulrich Bounat, a “license to live” is perhaps guaranteed in the short term in Belarus for Yevgeny Prigojine, “but in the medium and long term, it’s more debatable. Treachery is the worst crime in Putin’s eyes.” For the leader of Wagner, “Will Belarus be an open-air prison before deciding its fate?”, asks Carole Grimaud. “It will be a sword of Damocles hanging over his head for many years to come.”

5What will happen to Wagner’s operations in Africa?

Fidele Gouandjika, minister special adviser to the Central African president, told AFP on Monday that the Russian presence in the Central African Republic would continue, with or without Wagner. “The Central African Republic signed a defense agreement with the Russian Federation and not with Wagnerhe pointed out. They may change leaders, but Wagner’s soldiers will continue to operate on behalf of the Russian Federation.”

According to geopolitical analyst Ulrich Bounat, “Wagner’s activities in Africa will continue” because they are “very useful for a country ostracized by the international community”. “Russia cannot afford to let its allies down”, not to mention the financial interests of this presence in Africa, continues the researcher.