Extreme tension on the border between Russia and Ukraine. The conflict between Russian separatists and the Ukrainian army has escalated in recent weeks. And for good reason: Kiev claims that Moscow has massed tens of thousands of soldiers with a view to a possible invasion of the country. Charges rejected by Russia. In this explosive context, the US and Russian diplomatic leaders met, Thursday, December 2, in Sweden. But this meeting was not enough to calm the situation, Russia hoping for a “contact” between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Joe Biden “in the next few days”.
Franceinfo answers five questions on this conflict which has lasted since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and whose resumption is fueling tensions between Western countries and Moscow.
1What is the current situation on the border between Russia and Ukraine?
The conflict between the Russian separatists and the Ukrainian army has seen renewed tensions for several weeks. And as proof, a Ukrainian soldier was once again killed on the front line in clashes with pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country, the army announced on Thursday (December 1st). The Ukrainian army accused the separatists of firing at its positions with grenade launcher and large-caliber machine guns.
In total, six Ukrainian soldiers were killed during the month of November and 61 since the beginning of the year in the east of the country, according to the army press service. An increase in figure compared to 2020. The separatists have reported the loss of some 40 fighters since the start of the year.
Since the end of October, dVideos have also started circulating on social media, claiming to show movement of Russian troops, tanks and other heavy weapons towards the Ukrainian border. Ukrainian officials thus ensure that Russia has deployed around 115,000 soldiers there. Moscow for its part denies any bellicose inclination and in return accuses Ukraine of constituting a “threatens” for her.
2What are the origins of this conflict?
To understand the situation on the border between Russia and Ukraine, you have to go back a few years. Since 2014, eastern Ukraine has been plagued by a war between Kiev and pro-Russian separatists, which erupted shortly after Moscow’s annexation of Crimea.
If clashes have greatly diminished since peace agreements in 2015, violence still erupts regularly. Russia is notably accused of financially and militarily supporting the separatists, which it denies. In total, this conflict has already claimed more than 13,000 lives in seven years.
3Why is there a surge of tension now?
Russia is using the conflict on the Ukrainian border to influence the international scene. This time, for Moscow, it is a question of preventing any extension of NATO towards the East, with a possible rallying of Ukraine in this Western defense organization.
This strategy is not new. It had already been put in place in April 2021, when around 100,000 soldiers had been deployed to the border. Moscow finally assured to have withdrawn shortly after the announcement of the first summit between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden. At the time, some analysts saw it as a move by the Kremlin to appear in a position of strength as the meeting approached. This same tactic could therefore be used by Russia in recent weeks, as Moscow and Washington are currently discussing the organization of a new summit between the Russian president and his American counterpart.
Other events could also have angered Moscow. Some specialists told AFP that Russia had a bad experience of Ukraine’s use, at the end of October, of drones made in Turkey, a member of NATO, and would therefore send a warning.
4Is a Russian invasion possible?
Bluff or real threat? Ukraine on November 29 called on its allies to act quickly to deter Russia from any invasion, believing that a Moscow offensive could be launched “in the blink of an eye”. “Better to act now, not later”, for “hold back Russia”, Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kouleba said during a press briefing.
“What we are seeing is very serious. Russia has deployed a large military force near the Ukrainian border. This includes tanks, artillery systems, electronic warfare systems, air and naval forces.”, he listed.
For its part, Russia has always denied any will to invade and qualified the Ukrainian accusations against it as“hysteria”. Vladimir Putin also pointed out that in the spring no invasion had taken place despite similar concerns. Alexandre Baounov, analyst at the cbetween Muscovite from the Carnegie Foundation, for his part, told AFP that he could “hardly imagine an invasion without reason”.
5What is the reaction of the United States?
Faced with this rise in tensions and despite Russian denials, the American response was quick. “We are deeply concerned about Russia’s plans for further aggression against Ukraine,” said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken alongside his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Thursday in Sweden. “If Russia decides to continue on the path of confrontation, it will suffer serious consequences”, he warned, after having already threatened painful sanctions a few days earlier.
Antony Blinken still extended his hand to his counterpart, saying he was ready to “facilitate” the implementation of the Minsk agreements, concluded after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 to settle the conflict in eastern Ukraine, but which have never really been implemented. After listing the clauses that Moscow did not, in his eyes, have respected, the American added: “The best way to prevent a crisis is diplomacy.”