The European Political Community, dear to French President Emmanuel Macron, is holding its first meeting on Thursday, October 6 in Prague, the Czech capital. This community”would allow democratic European nations adhering to our core values to find a new space for political cooperation, security and cooperation”explained the French head of state in Strasbourg on May 9. In addition to the member countries of the European Union, 17 countries are participating in this summit, including Turkey, Switzerland and Serbia. Ukraine will also be represented.
Turkey wants to maintain contact with the European Union
If the presence of Turkey provokes debate, President Erdogan will be present. Turkey was keen on this invitation, Recep Tayip Erdogan wants to be in the European family photo. The main condition for Ankara was that this new political community should not be an alternative to membership. The Turkish president believes he has been confirmed in this analysis. According to Ankara, it was unthinkable to exclude Turkey from a summit where Ukraine, Armenia or even Azerbaijan and Georgia are invited. So many countries in the region, bordering Turkey or in which Turkish diplomacy is very involved.
Turkey wanted to be there, but for all that, no progress in its path towards integration within the European Union has been unveiled. The process is indeed jammed, both on the customs union and on the issuance of visas. Only the refugee package is still in force. The rule of law in Turkey does not allow progress to be made: justice is under orders, the press muzzled, the prisons full of intellectuals accused of plotting against the state, the rights of women curtailed. However, no reform is in sight in this regard. But Turkey does not wish to break the bridges, besides there would be a too high political cost for any Turkish government which would put an end to the process of accession to the EU.
In addition, Erdogan will take advantage of his visit to Prague to further refine his image as a regional diplomat. An appointment has already been made with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, tensions remain very high between Yerevan and Azerbaijan. There will no doubt be occasion for other asides. Turkey, for example, has still not ratified the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO.
Serbia increasingly distant from the European Union
Serbia will also be represented at this summit, in a context where relations with the European Union are particularly complicated. The country has been under strong pressure from European diplomats for several months. This country of 7 million inhabitants obtained its status as a candidate for the European Union already ten years ago and until recently it was even perceived as one of the most advanced on the path to l integration with 23 chapters opened out of 35. But everything changed on February 24, 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Although he condemned this invasion, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic still refuses to join the European sanctions against his Russian ally. He continues to assert that EU membership remains Serbia’s strategic goal. However, last September 23, the Serbian Minister of Foreign Affairs signed a foreign policy agreement with Sergueï Lavrov, Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs. A gesture that was seen as the straw that broke the camel’s back by many European leaders.
A situation that is deteriorating, to such an extent that Serbia’s European future is even in question. European diplomats are now openly discussing the possibility of sanctions against Belgrade, if the Serbian leaders do not ultimately choose their side. The European Parliament should also ask for the suspension of the negotiations. Some also mention the questioning of Serbia’s candidacy. In this context, the Prague summit should be a new opportunity for the Europeans to increase the pressure on Belgrade. Not sure that this summit will restore the image of the EU in the country. According to some opinion polls, nearly two thirds of Serbs today feel closer to Russia than to the European Union.
Switzerland wants to pick up the pieces with the European Union
Switzerland, and its complicated history with Brussels, will also be in Prague. With the European Union, it’s a bit like “I love you, me neither”. Two lovers who have been seeing each other forever, but who can’t manage to live together, let alone get married. Switzerland came close to joining the European Economic Area, but the people refused in a referendum in 1992. Instead, Bern and Brussels entered into a multitude of bilateral agreements on just about every subject: trade, transport, agriculture, free movement of persons. An indigestible mille-feuille that was to make way for a single framework agreement. But Switzerland withdrew from the negotiations last year, somewhat reinforcing the feeling that Switzerland wants the butter and the butter money of the European single market, but without quid pro quos. Switzerland, which had applied to join the EU in 1992, withdrew its request in 2016 only.
This participation in the Prague summit could therefore make it possible to pick up the pieces a little. If Switzerland does not want to curb its political sovereignty, it remains very dependent on its neighbours. The EU is 50% of Switzerland’s exports and 60% of imports. The war in Ukraine has also shown that when it comes to choosing a side, Switzerland systematically ranks behind the EU. For example, it took over all the sanctions against Russia. Bern has also shown interest in strengthening its ties with NATO. The time is therefore not for marriage, but not for divorce either.