The use of French has declined in most regions of Quebec, not just in Montreal, reveals an analysis of the most recent data from the 2021 census from Statistics Canada. No less than 81 of the approximately 100 regional county municipalities in Quebec recorded a decline in the share of French as the first official language spoken (FOLS), between 2016 and 2021.
Population movements largely explain these declines, according to Professor Jean-Pierre Corbeil, from the sociology department at Laval University. “There has been a growth in permanent immigration from countries where French is not a commonly known language,” explains Mr. Corbeil, former deputy director of the Diversity and Sociocultural Statistics Division of Statistics Canada. For the year 2019, this immigration represents more than 40,000 people, of which 42.9% come from Asia, 35.7% from Africa and 10.5% from Europe, according to the Summary sheet on immigration in Quebec in 2019. Of these 40,000 immigrants, half said they spoke French in 2019.
In addition, temporary immigration is also a factor in the drop in the rate of people with French as their FOLS. “Temporary immigration has simply exploded in recent years and we know that these non-permanent residents are more likely not to know French,” continues Mr. Corbeil. In 2019, the number of temporary immigrants was around 120,000.
Finally, people arriving from other Canadian provinces favor the practice of English. “Due to the pandemic, we have observed much lower interprovincial migration over the past five years, explains the professor at Laval University. Since the people who leave Quebec are generally unilingual Anglophones or have English as their main language, this lack of mobility can also explain the growth in the number of Anglophones”.
Bertrand Ouellet-Léveillé, analyst at Statistics Canada, talks about factors that are not only migratory. “There is also the demographic phenomenon. The French-speaking population is often older than the non-French-speaking population. This aging leads to a decline, explains the specialist. Then there is the difficulty in enumerating certain reserves and certain aboriginal settlements. It has an impact on the census of the FOLS, in some cases on the English FOLS, as in Gaspésie, in other cases on the French one, as on the North Shore, ”he underlines.
And to inside of Quebec ?
According to our compilation, the decline of French in Quebec is not homogeneous. Of the 15 census divisions showing the largest drop in the share of French as first official language spoken, eight are located in the metropolitan area. There are, for example, Longueuil, Laval and, of course, Montreal. “The vast majority of migrants who arrive settle in the greater Montreal area,” notes Mr. Corbeil. A conclusion which tends to confirm the role of international migratory flows.
Ontario’s border sectors are also experiencing an increase in their rate of use of English. This is particularly the case for the Pontiac, Vaudreuil-Soulanges and Gatineau divisions. “In the Gatineau region, Anglophones from Ontario come to Quebec for work or for economic reasons, which reinforces English-speaking immigration and contributes to the increase of English in Quebec”, notes Jean-Pierre Trash.
The increase in the Francophonie outside this border region finds another explanation. If Anglophones tend to stay in Montreal or settle in its crowns, Francophones move more outside the metropolitan area, explains the professor from Laval University.
A clue developer ?
Jean-Pierre Corbeil insists all the same, it remains necessary to compare his conclusions to factors other than the FOLS. Bilingualism, which the index does not take into account, would for example be on the rise in Quebec and more particularly in Montreal, where new immigrants often speak French. “Most of the indicators show that there is a decline, but we must still remain attentive to new published results such as those of the language spoken at work or in the public space”, notes the professor.
“In quantitative terms, the number of people who speak French in Quebec has never been so high. In proportion, the indicators of French are decreasing, but not in terms of number, ”underlines Bertrand Ouellet-Léveillé.
A fight Politics ?
For several years now, the Quebec government has expressed concern about these results to the detriment of French. Last August, at the end of a meeting of the Council of Ministers, François Legault declared on this subject: “From what I see, it is worrying and we were right to act with Bill 96. ”
According to Jean-Pierre Corbeil, political measures regarding migration have themselves influenced the rate of Francophones in Quebec. “To what extent does Quebec use the powers at its disposal to encourage immigrants who know French upon arrival? These powers can have an influence over time. »