The Finnish Parliament begins Wednesday to discuss joining NATO to better protect itself against possible Russian aggression, with a candidacy now “very likely”.
Despite Moscow’s latest warnings of nuclear reinforcements in the Baltic region should neighboring Finland or Sweden join the US-led military alliance, Helsinki intends to make a decision quickly.
“I think it will happen quite quickly. In a few weeks,” said the young social-democratic leader of the Nordic country, Sanna Marin, last week.
Divided on the issue for a long time until the invasion of Ukraine, the 200 members of the Eduskunta, the country’s barely 100-year-old parliament, are heading for a clear majority in favor of membership in a probable vote. by summer.
According to scores made by the Finnish media, a hundred of them have already decided to vote for membership, when only 12 are against. The others are waiting for the debates to show their position.
Without expressing a formal recommendation, a new “white paper” delivered last week by the government to parliamentarians stressed that only membership of NATO made it possible to benefit from the umbrella of its famous article 5 of collective defence.
Even though it broke with its strict neutrality at the end of the Cold War and when it joined the European Union in 1995, Finland is today only a NATO partner.
For the Nordic country, which has a 1,300 kilometer border with Russia, joining the 30-member alliance would provide “significantly greater” deterrence against an attack by its powerful neighbor, according to the white paper.
It is “very likely” that Finland is a candidate, acknowledged Finnish Minister for European Affairs Tytti Tuppurainen on Friday, while ensuring that the decision had not been made.
“Consequences”
“The Finns seem to have made up their mind and there is already a huge majority in favor of joining NATO,” she noted.
Polls suggest that nearly two-thirds of the 5.5 million Finns are now in favor of membership, almost triple the level they languished before the war in Ukraine.
Moscow is trying to discourage the march of its former grand duchy, which has already obtained marks of support from most members of the alliance for possible membership.
“Being a member of NATO cannot strengthen their national security. De facto, (Finland and Sweden) will be the first line of NATO,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Friday.
These countries “must understand the consequences of such a measure for our bilateral relations and for the European security architecture as a whole”, she said.
The Finnish decision is being followed with great attention in Sweden. The Scandinavian country, which has never been at war for two centuries, is also considering joining the alliance, but seems to make its decision depend on the choice of Helsinki.
Many analysts anticipate a candidacy from Finland, and perhaps Sweden, soon enough for the NATO summit in late June in Madrid.
The unanimity of the members is required. If a question mark remains over the choice of Hungary by Viktor Orban to the line more favorable to Russia than the other Europeans, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg estimated that there would be no obstacle.
Helsinki expects four months to about a year to be needed to ratify the accession procedures – a sensitive period during which guarantees of military assistance should be formulated in its favour.
If Finland joins, the land borders between NATO countries and Russia would suddenly double, reaching almost 2,600 kilometres.
Finland, Russian for almost two centuries (1809-1917), shares a heavy history with its big neighbour, marked by heroic resistance during the Second World War, especially during the Winter War in 1939-40.