Finland for the first time opened the door on Tuesday to NATO membership without Sweden, now at an impasse to win the green light from Turkey after a series of anti-Turkish demonstrations in Stockholm where a Koran was burned.
A joint membership of the two Nordic countries remains “the first option”, but “we obviously have to assess the situation, if something has happened which means that in the long term Sweden can no longer move forward”, affirmed the head of Finnish diplomacy Pekka Haavisto on public television Yle, judging however that it is “too early to take a position”.
The burning of a Koran by anti-Islamic right-wing extremist Rasmus Paludan during a police-sanctioned protest on Saturday near the Turkish embassy in Stockholm sparked strong protests from Ankara and several capitals of the Muslim world.
Stockholm deplored a “deeply disrespectful” act and expressed its “sympathy” to Muslims, stressing that the Swedish Constitution prevented from prohibiting this type of action, but without calming anger.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday that Sweden could no longer count on the “support” of Ankara after this incident, which adds to another caused by a video of pro-Kurdish activists in mid-January.
These protests are an “obstruct” for NATO candidacies and the “protesters are playing with the security of Finland and Sweden”, Mr. Haavisto lamented on Tuesday.
“My own conclusion is that there will be a delay (for a Turkish green light), which will certainly last until the Turkish elections in mid-May,” he acknowledged.
A pro-Kurdish demonstration, with many flags of the Ankara-hunted Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), also took place in central Stockholm on Saturday.
In mid-January, a support group for Kurdish armed groups in Syria, the Rojava Committee, hung a mannequin bearing the image of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in front of Stockholm City Hall, arousing indignation in Ankara despite condemnations of the Swedish government.
” Plan B “
Unlike the case of Sweden, Turkey has said in recent months that it has no major objections to Finland’s entry into NATO.
Like the 30 members of the alliance, Ankara must ratify the entry of any new member, having a de facto right of veto.
Only Turkey and Hungary – which says it does not want to block them – have yet to ratify Swedish and Finnish membership.
Helsinki had, however, so far refused to speculate on the option of entry without Sweden, stressing the advantages of joint membership with its very close neighbour.
“There is a change, where now the plans B are expressed aloud”, underlines to AFP Matti Pesu, expert on defense issues at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA).
“I think the heads of government have considered several scenarios, but so far it was considered important to maintain a united line and it was not necessarily wise to say that Finland was considering going without Sweden. , he analyzes.
Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström told Swedish media on Tuesday that he was “in contact with Finland to find out what this really means”.
After the excitement caused by his announcement on the Swedish side, Pekka Haavisto – currently favorite to be elected Finnish president in 2024 – wanted to clarify his remarks.
During a press conference, he said he did not want to “speculate” on the option of membership without Sweden, and denied a “plan B”.
“But obviously in the back of our minds we’re thinking about different worlds where countries would be permanently barred from joining,” he said.
In May, the two Nordic countries submitted their candidacy on the same day to NATO headquarters in Brussels, as a direct result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ending decades out of military alliances.
Finland, forced by Moscow to a forced neutrality during the Cold War, shares a border of more than 1300 kilometers with Russia, which would extend the line of contact between NATO and Moscow by the same amount.
A memorandum of understanding with Turkey was signed in June in Madrid but Ankara, which notably criticizes Sweden for being a haven for Kurdish “terrorists”, considers Swedish efforts to respect it insufficient.