Why a deficit?
First, it should be remembered that everything starts from the pandemic, which has disrupted the use of public transport and dug a huge hole in the finances of transport companies. More than three years after the first confinement, attendance is still barely around 80% of the pre-pandemic level. Result: the shortfall for the next five years is estimated at 2.5 billion, according to the government, and at 3.7 billion according to the Quebec Urban Transport Association (ATUQ). In short, the industry is bleeding. Under pressure, the Minister of Transport, Geneviève Guilbault, committed last spring to presenting a five-year financing plan, to turn things around.
Who will pay for this deficit?
This is the crux of the problem. Mid-October, Mme Guilbault first proposed aid of 502.8 million over five years to transport companies, which amounts to absorbing only 20% of the deficit of 2.5 billion estimated by his government. Cities would then have had to cover the bulk of the bill, which risked leading to significant tax increases. The cities then submitted a counter-proposal: that Quebec assume in the short term 75% of the deficit for the year 2024, estimated at 532 million. Their request to the government thus amounts to 400 million for next year. Then, on Thursday, Quebec made a so-called “final” and upward offer to cities and transport companies, as planned. In Greater Montreal alone, the government would increase its contribution from 150 to 238 million for 2024. The total aid offered to date is 265 million, including some 27 million for regions outside of Montreal, which amounts to absorbing 70% of the deficit according to the calculation made by the government.
Is an agreement still possible?
The short answer is obviously yes, since ultimately, Quebec and Montreal have no other choice than to agree in the short term for 2024. For the future and the next few years, however, this could take more than time. In the long term, it will indeed be difficult to find common ground, since the two parties do not even agree on the calculation of the deficit. The government is of the opinion that transport companies overestimate it by almost 200 million. According to Quebec, the deficit is 338 million, while according to the cities, it reaches 532 million. A vagueness remains in particular regarding the use of the new tax on registration in Greater Montreal: the municipalities want to use the kitty to develop the network, while the government rather wants it to be used to reduce the deficit of the transport companies. transportation. In short, several disputes will still have to be resolved.
What will happen in the event of an impasse?
According to the cities, any government aid less than 300 million for 2024 would directly lead to significant cuts in public transport services. We still do not know if these scenarios will actually occur, but among those that have already been mentioned, let us mention the closure of the metro at 11 p.m., which makes Mayor Valérie Plante fear damage to “the reputation” of Montreal. A drop would also be felt in the number of buses throughout Greater Montreal, and dozens of drivers would have to be laid off. For some observers, the possibility of seeing such catastrophic scenarios come true remains low, to the extent that neither Quebec nor Montreal has any interest in seeing them come true. The Société de transport de Montréal (STM) has also indicated that if it had to make cuts, it would do so by affecting “as few users” as possible.
Why the emergency?
It is especially from the point of view of the cities that time is running out, since the presentation of municipal budgets is planned within a few weeks. In Montreal, for example, we already know that the budget will have to be finalized around November 15. In government, we must also act quickly, since a budget update is expected this Tuesday and should include the financial aid in question. “Right now, we have to operate with assumptions. And we cannot be rigorous if we do not have figures in front of us,” recalled the mayor of Longueuil, Catherine Fournier, a few days ago. Meeting as a board of directors, the municipalities of the Metropolitan Community of Montreal (CMM) have already agreed to limit the increase in the municipal contribution to the ARTM to 4% for the 2024 financial year. The reality, However, without help from Quebec, this increase could be much higher.