financial results significantly worse than expected in 2024

Unédic, the organization that manages unemployment insurance, has revised its surplus forecast downwards, which risks encouraging the government to reform the system to make additional savings.

It’s a cold shower, Unédic’s surplus is four times lower than expected. It reached a little more than 1.5 billion euros compared to the five billion which were estimated in September 2023. There are two elements of explanation. First, the slowdown in the economy following international tensions (war in Ukraine, attacks on boats by the Houthis in the Red Sea, recession in Germany, slowdown in China, etc.).

This slowdown in trade and commerce leads to a drop in orders for companies which, consequently, create fewer jobs. Et less hiring means less contributions and therefore money in the unemployment insurance coffers. We must also take into account that with a slowing labor market, people remain more unemployed, which represents benefits to be paid and therefore expenses.

The creation of France travail is another element of explanation. Since 1er January, this new organization came to replace Pôle emploi and this new large public employment service, wanted by Emmanuel Macron, weighs down the unemployment insurance accounts, because it is partly financed with the unemployment insurance budget. unemployment. According to Unédic, the drain is significant, since in total, also including funds taken for France Competences, which manages training and apprenticeship, it is more 12 billion euros over four years between 2023 and 2027 which are levied on unemployment insurance. VSThese levies slow down the ability to repay the debt. According to Unédic, this unemployment insurance debt will exceed 38 billion euros at the end of 2027, while without these levies, it would have been reduced to 25 billion.

Unions and employers on their guard

These forecasts risk encouraging the government to reform unemployment insurance, which seeks 10 billion euros in additional savings. He does not hide his intention to tighten the rules for compensating job seekers to encourage them to return to work more quickly and save money.

For the moment, the executive is awaiting proposals from the social partners, the unions and employers who are negotiating on the employment of seniors. The government gave them until the end of March to find solutions and reach an agreement. But once this negotiation is finished, he will present a reform in April or May, he wants to move quickly. In his general policy declaration, Gabriel Attal threatened the social partners to take back control if Unédic’s financial trajectory did not correspond to his expectations. Sunions and employers, who manage the unemployment insurance system, have been on guard for years.