Fighting rages again in Ethiopia

After a fragile truce lasting several months, fighting has resumed in northern Ethiopia between the rebels of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal troops of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.

Marc Thibodeau
The Press

Agence France-Presse reported on Tuesday about the southward advance of Tigrayan forces in the neighboring region of Amhara over a distance of about fifty kilometers and a southeastward push into Afar, another neighboring region.

During the night of Tuesday to Wednesday, a drone raid with “at least three bombs which would have been dropped” on Mekele, capital of the Tigray region, would have occurred, according to Getachew Reda, spokesman for the rebel authorities in the sector, who says he has been waging a “defensive war” since the resumption of hostilities. The attack reportedly injured people. Information that cannot be independently verified because journalists do not have access to northern Ethiopia.

Martin Plaut, a specialist in the Horn of Africa who closely follows the evolution of the conflict, notes that the two sides are “once again” accusing each other of being responsible for the resumption of hostilities, without possible to see clearly the situation on the ground, for lack of independent observers.

“What is clear is that they were absolutely ready on both sides for a new round of clashes,” notes Mr. Plaut, who is worried about their impact on the populations of the region.

The primary objective of the Tigrayan leaders, he said, is to break the blockade imposed by the central government, which limits the entry into the territory of the food aid required by a significant part of the population.

The truce announced by Addis Ababa in the spring had allowed humanitarian workers to intensify their activities, but the material sent to the site remained well below the needs required to resolve the crisis.

In its latest report released last week, the World Food Program (WFP) said that 89% of Tigray’s population now needed food aid, compared to 83% at the beginning of January.

The number of people struggling with a “severe” lack of food jumped at the same time from 37% to 47% during the same period.

“Hunger has worsened, malnutrition rates have soared and the situation promises to worsen further as the population enters the most food-critical period ahead of the annual harvest in October,” warned the organization.

The distribution of aid has also been complicated recently by disputes with the Tigrayan authorities, who were accused last week by the WFP of having seized half a million liters of gasoline intended for humanitarian purposes.

Mr. Plaut noted that the thrust of the Tigrayan forces towards the south could be aimed at putting pressure on the central government and forcing it to make concessions on the humanitarian level.

It cannot be ruled out, he adds, that they are trying to reach the capital, Addis Ababa, possibly by coordinating their action with a rebel group active in the Oromia region, in the south of the country.

Objectives difficult to determine

William Davison, an analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG), notes that the military objectives pursued by the two camps are difficult to determine at this stage.

A “continued escalation of fighting” could in particular lead, he said, federal troops to try again to overthrow the Tigrayan government.

Abiy Ahmed, who received the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to appease neighboring Eritrea, launched a massive offensive in November 2020 to defeat the TPLF following the holding of regional elections marking their desire to break with the central government.

Tigrayan leaders had long held the upper hand in Ethiopia before being ousted by the election of Mr. Abiy, who describes them as “terrorists” seeking to undermine the country’s cohesion.

Federal troops had quickly taken control of the regional capital, Mekele, before being pushed back the following year from the territory by the rebels.

According to Mr. Plaut, the Tigrayan leaders were demanding that the central government restore the basic services interrupted in the wake of the recovery of the city (electricity, communications, access to the banking system) before engaging in peace negotiations. They also demanded the return of the occupied territories in western Tigray.

The federal government, notes the analyst, has asked for its part that the discussions go ahead “without preconditions”.

William Davison points out that the peace process failed because of the “lack of trust” between the two camps and their skepticism that their “widely divergent objectives” could be achieved at the negotiating table.

In a statement to AFP, a spokesman said on Tuesday that the Tigrayan leaders were currently waging a “defensive war” and remained “open to any negotiation”.

The federal government said it was determined for its part to “peacefully resolve the conflict” while reiterating that the resumption of hostilities was attributable to the “terrorists” of Tigray.