On February 24, the greatest military and humanitarian crisis known to the European continent since the Second World War broke out. Six months later, the conflict and its consequences continue to reverberate around the world, and the hope of a quick resolution is becoming increasingly remote.
>> War in Ukraine: follow our live for the six months of the conflict
Where are the clashes on the ground? The discussions between the belligerents? The economic consequences of the conflict for kyiv, Moscow and the rest of the world? Franceinfo takes stock.
On the military level
Far from the Russian lightning war of the first days, the front got bogged down. The Pentagon insists on the “total lack of progress of the Russians on the battlefield” those last weeks. Today, it is in the south that the main clashes are taking place: the front line extends over “about 350 km to the south-west, from the vicinity of Zaporizhia to Kherson, along the Dnieper river”explained british intelligence* August 6.
The illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is continuing.
The map below is the latest Defense Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 23 August 2022
Find out more about the UK government’s response: https://t.co/hlz6q5cJoD
#StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/xYiKX2odEN
—Ministry of Defense (@DefenceHQ) August 23, 2022
Ukrainian authorities hinted that a counter-offensive was being prepared to retake the Kherson region, but Russia reinforced its troops in the surrounding area. kyiv has since adopted another strategy. “Ukrainian forces strike bridges over the Dnieper, which Russian troops rely on for logistical supplies”, tells franceinfo Isabelle Facon, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research. A strategy that seems to have proven itself: the Russian command in the region had to leave the city of Kherson to withdraw further east, according to the Ukrainian authorities quoted by the independent Russian media Meduza*.
kyiv is applying a similar strategy in the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow has controlled since 2014. Several explosions have recently destroyed weapons warehouses and railway lines there, such as on August 9 in Saki. The Russian authorities initially claimed that these were accidents, before admitting a case of “sabotage” during the explosion of an ammunition depot in Djankoi on August 16. kyiv has not officially claimed responsibility for these destructions. Drones are also regularly sent to the peninsula, such as those that hit the headquarters of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea on August 1 and 20.
“The attacks on Crimea have an impact all the stronger since the peninsula was thought to be ‘sanctuary’ due to Russian control since the annexation.”
Isabelle Facon, Deputy Director of the Foundation for Strategic Researchat franceinfo
A little further north, in the region of Zaporijjia, it is the Energodar nuclear power plant (controlled by Russia) that concentrates concerns. kyiv and Moscow have been accusing each other of bombing the area around the plant for several weeks. Many international leaders are alarmed at the risk of nuclear disaster and claim that Russia is trying to connect the plant to its own power grid. Vladimir Putin has accepted the idea of an inspection of the plant by agents of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the United Nations, but the details of this visit have not yet been fixed.
On the diplomatic level
If the situation seems locked in military terms, it is even more so from a diplomatic point of view. Neither kyiv nor Moscow seem ready to start negotiations.
“Each party believes that it can win on the one hand, that the terms of the negotiation will be determined by the situation on the ground on the other hand.”
Isabelle Facon, Deputy Director of the Foundation for Strategic Researchat franceinfo
Russia “sees no possibility for diplomatic contacts” and ensures to prepare for a long conflict, according to the Moscow ambassador to the UN quoted by the Financial Times*. The Ukrainian president demanded the departure of Russian troops before any negotiations, and affirmed that if the separatist authorities in Donetsk organized a “court case” against the Ukrainian soldiers taken prisoner in Mariupol, it would be a “line beyond which all negotiation is impossible”reports Meduza*.
The situation was different in March. “The Ukrainian president had himself raised the possibility of accepting a status of neutrality; the country’s security would then have been guaranteed by several states”, recalls Isabelle Facon. But talks between the delegations broke down in June, with each side accusing the other of obstructing the process. The agreement allowing the resumption of Ukrainian grain exports by sea may have offered hope for an agreement, but the two countries insist that they did not sign the same document, each having in fact negotiated separately with Turkey and the UN. “Today, the chances of these negotiations moving forward seem very low”according to the researcher.
On the economic plan
Russia on a slippery slope. Moscow thwarts the most pessimistic forecasts for the moment. According to preliminary figures from Rosstat*, Russian GDP would have fallen by 4% between the second quarter of 2021 and 2022. The Bank of Russia* only forecasts a recession of 4 to 6% over the year, a significant decline, but far from the 8 to 10% envisaged by the central bank in April. The IMF has also tempered its fears, and since July* has been anticipating an annual decline in GDP of 6%, against 8.5% in April. Inflation should reach 12 to 15% over the year according to the Bank of Russia*, an increase again lower than previous forecasts.
But Western sanctions are designed to weigh in the long term. A study* from Yale University, published on July 20, claims that “Corporate leaks and sanctions are catastrophically crippling the Russian economy”. Russia can no longer import many products and components, especially technological ones, which leads to “the progressive disappearance of the capacity for domestic innovation and Russian production”. Its exclusion from the major international financial markets does not help matters. The gradual reduction of Russian oil and gas purchases by the European Union will further aggravate Moscow’s losses. The IMF has worsened its forecasts for 2023*, with a fall in Russian GDP of 3.5% over the year.
Ukraine on the brink. The situation in Ukraine is much more dramatic. Inflation has reached 22% over the last 12 months according to the Ukrainian central bank*, Ukrainian GDP has already shrunk by 15.1% between the 1st quarter of 2021 and 2022, and it could collapse by 35 to 40% over the year 2022, warned the Minister of the Economy* on August 19.
Unlike Moscow, kyiv has no hydrocarbons to compensate for its losses: it mainly exports cereals (which Moscow prevented from passing by sea until June) and metallurgical products (of which Moscow has destroyed the main factories in Mariupol). Ukraine’s central bank needs to run the printing press to finance the massive war-related budget deficit and has already burned more than a quarter of its foreign exchange reserves* since February.
kyiv got help: its creditors gave it a break from repaying its international obligations until 2024*. It has also been promised around 32 billion euros in budgetary aid from 41 international donors, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy* as of August 3. But only 12 billion had actually been paid by that date, while the reconstruction of the destroyed infrastructure alone could cost nearly 200 billion dollars, according to the Kyiv School of Economics*.
In terms of raw materials
The hydrocarbon markets are experiencing contrasting developments. The price of oil has fallen 24% since its peak in March: the price of a barrel of Brent was at $96.48 on August 22* – still 22% above its level on January 3. But specialists explain this recent reduction by the drop in global demand for oil and by the fear of a recession.
The rise in the price of gas, on the other hand, saw almost no pause: the price of the Dutch TTF futures contract reached a new record, at 257.40 euros per megawatt/hour, at the close of trading on August 19. The announcement of a new temporary closure of the Nord Stream gas pipeline scheduled for August 31 has revived fears in the markets, already worried about the risk of gas shortages in Europe for the coming winter.
Cereal prices, for their part, have started to fall, with the gradual recovery of Ukrainian exports. The FAO food price index fell nearly 9% in July, but it still stands 13.1% above its July 2021 level. Nearly 690,000 tonnes of cereals left the Ukraine as of August 21, according to the UN*, but this represents just 11% of what the country exported each month before the war, according to Reuters*.
* All links followed by an asterisk lead to links in English.