The workers most directly affected by the transition to a green economy are relatively few, but will need all the help they can get to find other less polluting sectors of activity, reports an IMF study.
Efforts to limit global warming often come up against the question of what to do with workers in sectors with the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, find researchers from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). ) in an analysis released Wednesday and taken from the next edition of its World Economic Outlook. “It’s one thing to agree that we have to distance ourselves from fossil fuels. But how are workers in coal mines supposed to, say, get jobs as installers of solar panels? “, summarized in a blog two of them.
We must begin by putting things into perspective, say the authors of the twenty-page analytical chapter. If, collectively, countries kept their word and succeeded in limiting global warming to around 1.5°C, no more than around 1% of all jobs would be directly affected, on average, over the next ten years in each of the developed economies.
The workers affected would be found mainly in sectors with high GHG emissions, notably in energy, mining and manufacturing. They would not necessarily have to find jobs in the green sectors, since this major job shift could be like a game of musical chairs, where workers from the most polluting sectors would relocate to less polluting sectors while workers in these less polluting sectors would find jobs in the green sectors.
At 1%, this transfer of jobs would be much more modest than that which has been witnessed since the mid-1980s, from the manufacturing sector to the service sector, and which occurs at the rate of 4% of the workforce per decade. It would then happen that, year after year, an average of 8% of workers change jobs each year.
This would result in a net gain for workers, with incomes being on average 7% higher in green sectors than in the most polluting sectors, even when all other factors are taken into account, such as the level of qualification or age.
Accelerate the transfer of workers
And yet, this transfer will not be on its own, warn IMF experts. Workers in green sectors such as those in polluting sectors enjoy greater stability and job security than others. Labor in green industries also tends to be more skilled and more urban than that in polluting industries, although the two sectors are often seen, particularly in the United States, thriving side by side in several regions.
This has the effect that only 4% to 7% of workers in the most polluting sectors who seek a new job each year find one in the green sectors. This transition towards green industries is hardly greater (9 to 11%) for the mass of workers who find themselves between these two poles.
In this context, it is not just the climate that needs governments to accelerate their transition policies towards a greener economy, there are also workers in the industries that will be most affected, say the experts, who propose a four-pronged plan.
First, apply sufficient carbon pricing to send a clear economic message to all. Beware also that assistance programs for businesses and workers going through difficult times do not promote status quo in the most polluting industries, but rather the green transition. We are thinking of investment in infrastructure and research. They also suggest training and requalification programs, as well as tax incentives aimed specifically at workers in the most polluting sectors who would be inclined to try their luck elsewhere.