(Ottawa) “Bring it home!” » It’s not just Edmonton Oilers fans who will chant this slogan on Monday, they who hope to see the Stanley Cup return to Canada for the first time since 1993. The conservative troops also want to see their foal win the bet in Toronto–St. Paul’s, and thus put an end to the liberal domination well established since… 1993.
Under normal circumstances, a text on a by-election in a Liberal stronghold of Toronto – on June 24, moreover – would be buried at the bottom of the issue. But this year, against a backdrop of Justin Trudeau’s record unpopularity, times are uncertain.
From the outset, let us point out that the Liberal Party is letting it be known, behind the scenes, that its color carrier Leslie Church will be able to pull off a victory, with a slim lead over her Conservative Party opponent Don Stewart.
PHOTO FROM CHRYSTIA FREELAND’S X ACCOUNT
Liberal candidate Leslie Church
Polling specialist Philippe J. Fournier comes to the same projection.
It might be something like [une victoire] three or four percentage points ahead.
Philippe J. Fournier, survey specialist and creator of the 338Canada site
The last time the margin was really tight in the “416” riding (Toronto’s area code) was in 2011, the year Stephen Harper’s Conservatives won a majority mandate. With only 8.2% ahead, Carolyn Bennett has never been so hot.
In the eight other elections in which she triumphed, from 1997 to 2021, her lead margins oscillated between 23.8% (2008) and 38% (2004). But now, Carolyn Bennett did not intend to run again in the next election, and Justin Trudeau appointed her Canadian ambassador to Denmark.
Hence this additional ballot at the start of the summer season. “The participation rate is likely to be very low. It’s a cliché, except that it’s true in this case: if the Liberals can’t get their vote out, they could lose,” warns Philippe J. Fournier.
Former strategist with the federal and Quebec Liberals, Jeremy Ghio shares this reading.
Dissatisfied liberal voters won’t necessarily vote for someone else. But it can stay at home. And in a partial, that’s dangerous.
Jeremy Ghio, former liberal strategist
According to preliminary data from Elections Canada, 10,787 eligible voters out of 84,668 (12.7%) have already completed their ballot. They had the choice between 84 candidates, including dozens registered as independents for the “Longest Ballot Committee”, a group which challenges the current voting system.
A referendum on Justin Trudeau?
Only two candidates have a chance of winning: Leslie Church and Don Stewart. The first was chief of staff to Mélanie Joly and Chrystia Freeland. The second comes from a financial background and worked in the public relations firm of Jenni Byrne, close advisor to Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
PHOTO FROM BEN MULRONEY’S X ACCOUNT
Conservative candidate Don Stewart (left) with host and producer Ben Mulroney
Their teams declined our interview request last Friday. If the conservative banner-bearer did not grant it to any national media, his liberal rival did, however, speak with several of them, including La Presse Canadienne.
To the press agency, which asked her if this election had the appearance of a referendum on the leadership of Justin Trudeau, she replied this: “I think some are tempted to present it that way. But these are local elections, and Trudeau is not on the ballot. Neither does Poilievre. »
The Prime Minister dodged the same question last Thursday, on the sidelines of an announcement in Nova Scotia. Instead, he presented the exercise as a referendum on the future vision for Canada, while attempting to define several months in advance the question of the ballot box for the next general election.
“There is a real choice that people are going to make in St. Paul’s that is going to be a reflection of the choice that people will have to make next year in the elections – what kind of country we want to live in,” added the Prime Minister, accusing the leader of the opposition of “always siding with the more fortunate”.
If fortune does not favor the Liberals on Monday, Jeremy Ghio finds it difficult to see how Justin Trudeau’s resignation, which some are speculating about, would help the cause. “We have to get out of our heads that magically things will go better if we change bosses. There is not even a year left before the next election,” he argues.
And this, even if, “in a rational world where people make decisions based on data, a prime minister who has been there for almost a decade and who loses a first seat in a fortified castle while the polls are rubbish for a year should leave,” adds Philippe J. Fournier.
Who will bring what home?
To be continued on a sports channel, or on the parliamentary channel.
The Jewish community courted
The riding of Toronto–St. Paul’s has the fifth highest proportion of Jewish residents in the country, at around 15%, according to 2021 census data. Deputy Conservative Leader Melissa Lantsman spoke to these voters to encourage them to go to the polls, and thus send Justin Trudeau “a message about his betrayal of our Jewish community,” it is written in a letter obtained by The Canadian Press. The Conservatives also attributed political motives to the Liberal government’s decision to include the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the list of terrorist entities on the last day of parliamentary work, last Wednesday, less than a week before the byelection in the Toronto riding.