Federal elected officials return to Parliament Hill on Monday and will find that the political landscape has changed considerably.
The last time they met in the nation’s capital, the Liberals knew their prospects were dim after languishing in the polls for more than a year, but they were confident the NDP would prevent them from bringing down their minority government until at least the next budget.
Several important changes have taken place during the summer and the weakened government will now function as a real minority and the country could be plunged into elections at any moment.
New Democratic Party (NDP) Leader Jagmeet Singh has torn up a political pact with the Liberal government and is already facing a challenge from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to vote in favour of a motion of non-confidence in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his ruling party.
The stakes are high for the NDP, whose electoral popularity does not appear to have improved drastically as a result of some of the legislation and programs it managed to secure from the Liberals as part of the deal, including a dental care plan and a pharmacare bill that is currently making its way through the Senate.
The new dynamic in Ottawa also opens up new possibilities for the Bloc Québécois (BQ), whose leader Yves-François Blanchet has already indicated that he is ready to do business with the Liberals in exchange for his own list of demands that benefit Quebec.
The Bloc’s provisions include the Liberals’ green light to private member’s Bill C-319, which would raise pensions for those aged 65 to 74 to the same level as those paid to those aged 75 and over.
The Liberals have meanwhile said they are avoiding the political machinations that the opposition parties are developing and are instead focusing on “delivering (the goods) to Canadians.”
The Liberals would have preferred to see their key bills pass through the House of Commons, including their pharmacare bill and the controversial Online Harms Act, but other parties could block that progress.
Mr. Singh has become much more critical of the prime minister and his government since he broke his deal with the Liberals that would have kept them in power until June 2025. But some New Democrats have suggested their leader is no more inclined to seek an election than Mr. Trudeau is right now.
All parties will be tested on Monday after MPs leave for the evening as they anxiously await the results of two crucial by-elections. The results will set the tone in parliament for the rest of the session.
The NDP is trying to push back Poilievre’s Conservatives in the Winnipeg-Transcona riding of Elmwood and the Liberals are in a three-way race against the NDP and Bloc in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Montreal.
“I look forward to speaking with you this weekend in LaSalle — Émard — Verdun, but also to welcoming Laura Palestini to Ottawa on Monday,” Mr. Trudeau said Friday, projecting a positive attitude about his Liberal candidate’s prospects in this Liberal stronghold that seems weakened.
Pressure is mounting again on Justin Trudeau, who has already received calls from members of the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) asking him to step down as leader after the LPC lost another byelection in Toronto—St. Paul’s in June. Those voices have become more muted over the summer.
Liberal MPs were quick to deny that the Montreal byelection was a test of Trudeau’s leadership when they retreated to Nanaimo, B.C., last week to discuss strategy ahead of the parliamentary session.
Jagmeet Singh could face similar scrutiny if he loses his long-held NDP seat in Winnipeg and his candidate fails to win the riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun from the Liberals.
As for the Conservatives, they are expected to meet in Ottawa this weekend to discuss their plan for the fall sitting and how they can encourage their opponents to cut short the next parliamentary session.