(Washington) March, May, or later? The moment at which the American central bank (Fed) will begin to lower its rates will be at the heart of the monetary meeting which began on Tuesday, after inflation figures better than expected in the United States and growth much stronger than expected. expected in 2023.
The meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) “started at 10 a.m. local time (10 a.m. Eastern time) as scheduled,” said a Fed spokesperson.
It will end at midday on Wednesday. The Fed will issue a statement at 2 p.m. (2 p.m. Eastern), and the institution’s president, Jerome Powell, will hold a press conference thirty minutes later.
More than 97% of markets expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged for the third time in a row.
After raising them 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, increasing them by 5 points to the range of 5.25 – 5.50%, the Federal Reserve is instead considering lowering them in the future.
Its officials signaled in December that they anticipated three or four declines this year, but without specifying when that might begin.
As early as March, some venture out. Rather in May, according to the majority of market players, according to the CME Group assessment.
Because the inflation figures, according to the PCE price index, the measure favored by the Fed and which it wants to reduce to 2%, were published last week, and brought a touch of optimism.
Core inflation – which excludes energy and food – is at its lowest in almost three years, at 2.9% year-on-year.
This means that the 2% target could soon be reached.
The FOMC has, like every year at its January meeting, four new voters.
In 2024, the presidents of the regional Feds of Cleveland, Loretta Mester, and San Francisco, Mary Daly, will vote, as well as the heads of the branches of Richmond, Tom Barkin, and Atlanta, Raphael Bostic.
The European Central Bank (ECB), which held its meeting on Thursday, left its interest rates unchanged and dampened the hopes of those who were waiting for indications of easing.