Will Benjamin Netanyahu be able to control his far-right allies? The question is on everyone’s lips in Israel and the occupied West Bank, where there are fears of a military escalation in the wake of the most serious violence in this Palestinian territory since the Second Intifada.
After his victory in the November 1 legislative elections, then weeks of negotiations with his allies from the ultra-Orthodox and far-right parties, Benjamin Netanyahu announced to President Isaac Herzog on Wednesday that he had succeeded in forming a government, the most right-wing of the history of Israel.
In this coalition, the tenors of the extreme right Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir will be respectively in charge of the settlements in the West Bank and National Security.
At least three senior Western diplomats have told AFP they are concerned about the arrival of Itamar Ben Gvir as head of the police, which includes units of the paramilitary force of border guards deployed in the West Bank, after a year already tense.
A wave of attacks has killed more than 20 people in Israel while Israeli raids and clashes have killed more than 150 in the West Bank, which has seen its deadliest violence since the end of the Second Intifada (2000 -2005), Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation, according to UN data.
West Bank under tension
The Israeli press has echoed in recent weeks the risk of having “two” armies in the West Bank, with the army on one side and the border guards on the other.
For Amir Avivi, reserve brigadier general and director of a network bringing together former security officials, “it is indeed the army that commands” in the West Bank. “I don’t see any scenario in which Ben Gvir could lead border guard operations there,” he told AFP.
For the Palestinian analyst Khaldoun Barghouti, the question is not so much the rules of engagement of the Israeli forces in the West Bank, but rather a development of the colonies or the annexation of territories.
“The measures of Ben Gvir and Smotrich will destroy the very possibility of a Palestinian state. It will push the Palestinians into more desperation. […] what happens on the ground will determine the nature of the escalation,” he adds.
More than 475,000 settlers currently live in the occupied West Bank, dividing up this territory and threatening, according to the UN, the two-state solution, an independent and stable Palestine alongside Israel.
However, Bezalel Smotrich has already announced his project to legalize a set of so-called “wild” settlements, that is to say not recognized by Israel.
Washington, Israel’s foremost ally, will “unequivocally oppose any action that endangers the two-state solution, including settlement expansion, moves to annex the West Bank, disrupting the historic status quo of holy sites, demolitions and evictions, and incitement to violence,” warned US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
The esplanade and 3rd intifada?
The esplanade of the Mosques, the third holiest place in Islam, the holiest place in Judaism under its name of Temple Mount, is the recurring focus of tension in East Jerusalem, the Palestinian sector of the holy city annexed by Israel.
Under a historical status quo, non-Muslims can go to the esplanade, but not pray there. “If Ben Gvir manages to convince Netanyahu, or orders the police to change the conduct of Israeli citizens on the Temple Mount, it will lead to a third intifada,” warned outgoing Public Security Minister Omer Barlev.
In May 2021, tensions in Jerusalem, and in particular on the esplanade, had led the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas to launch salvoes of rockets from the Gaza enclave towards Israeli territory, a prelude to a new deadly war between the two camps. .
The visits to the esplanade made this year by Itamar Ben Gvir have each time been described as a “provocation” by Hamas.
About the esplanade, “I don’t see Ben Gvir doing anything without the agreement of Netanyahu and the security cabinet,” said Amos Yadlin, former head of Israeli military intelligence, to AFP.
Especially since a change in the status quo or incidents on the esplanade could also have regional repercussions, while Israel wants normalization with Saudi Arabia, as it did with two other Gulf countries in within the framework of the Abraham Accords.
Only two things could impact the Abraham Accords, Mr. Yaldin believes: tensions on “the Temple Mount and clashes, by which I mean bloodshed.”