The Middle East today stands at a dangerous crossroads, where every decision could determine the region’s future for decades. While some observers attribute the current crisis to Israeli counterterrorism operations, which have eliminated leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas, it is essential to dig deeper to understand its true origins.
At the heart of this turmoil is Iran, whose long-standing goal has been the annihilation of the State of Israel. Everything that is happening stems from this relentless will.
For years, Iran has perfected the art of proxy warfare, using various armed groups to wage its crusade against Israel. Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen are all instruments of this strategy.
Among them, Hezbollah stands out with an arsenal of 150,000 missiles ready to be launched at Tehran’s request to serve Iranian geopolitical interests.
Precarious balance
At the inauguration of President Pezeshkian in Iran, the announcement of the creation of the Supreme Council of Islamic Resistance, bringing together factions such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, symbolizes a coalition of forces united in their hatred of Israel.
Iran, which continues to arm them relentlessly, innocently claims to play only a minor role in the conflict. Yet last April, direct Iranian intervention was narrowly avoided thanks to an Israeli-Western coalition, which highlights the precarious balance that prevails in the region.
Russia, for its part, has strengthened its alliance with Iran by purchasing Iranian drones and missiles for its own arsenal. Moscow seems determined to form a common front with China and Iran, in an Islamist and anti-imperialist coalition.
Yet Iranian public opinion remains wary, recalling past humiliations by Russia, including the 1828 Treaty of Turkmanchay, which enshrined Russian victory and the cessation of Armenian, Georgian, and Azeri territories to Russia. Still seen as a national shame, this treaty has become a symbol of Iranian distrust of Moscow; it is constantly mentioned.
Maelstrom
Faced with this geopolitical maelstrom, US President Joe Biden is trying to navigate between de-escalation and a show of force. Although he has deployed an impressive military fleet to the region, his diplomatic efforts are aimed at avoiding escalation, as he hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages while trying to revive relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Yet Biden knows that the situation is explosive. In the event of a major conflict, Hezbollah’s 150,000 missiles could be the target of an international operation, supported by the European powers. The latter are already grappling with the significant presence of Russian missiles on their borders and know what the danger of Iranian missiles can represent in the medium term.
Coordination between the United States and Israel is close, but Israel has taken independent initiatives, such as recent operations in Rafah and on the Gaza-Egypt border. These actions have exposed strategic tunnels used by Hamas. Washington fears being drawn into a major war, particularly if Israel decides to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.
Home front
On the domestic front, Biden must juggle a crucial election campaign. Convinced that the upcoming elections are decisive in saving American democracy, he must also consider the importance of Israel’s security in this context.
Kamala Harris, his vice president, strongly supports Israel while advocating a two-state solution. But without a concerted effort to eradicate the teaching of hatred within Palestinian institutions, any lasting solution seems elusive. Donald Trump, for his part, offers much less nuanced support for Israel.
Israel, for its part, is preparing for a conflict that will ideally end with the disarmament of Hezbollah and the denuclearization of Iran. The recent Israeli strikes, which destroyed Iran’s S-300 anti-missile system, show Tehran’s vulnerability.
But if war breaks out, the losses will be heavy for all, as Israeli, Lebanese and Palestinian civilian populations are on the front lines. Iranian missiles, notoriously inaccurate, risk wreaking havoc.
The repeated concessions granted to Iranian regimes by democratic presidents have had disastrous consequences. Instead of improving the living conditions of Iranians, oil revenues have been used to fuel a continuing destabilization effort across the Middle East. This reality has not escaped the notice of either Western countries or Sunni Arab states, all of which are increasingly aware of the growing danger posed by Iranian hegemony in a region already beset by multiple tensions.