The Farnborough Airshow opens Monday, April 18, in southern England. It is the first major international meeting of the post-Covid sector. The opportunity to take stock, but above all to draw up the prospects for a branch heavily affected by the crisis.
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This high mass of Farnborough, the first major world air show for three years, takes place when passengers are taking to the air again, for tourism but also for business trips. According to the latest figures published by the International Air Transport Association (Iata), in May, world traffic was just over two-thirds of its 2019 level, before the crisis. It should return to its normal level next year for domestic traffic (flights within a country), and in 2025 for long-haul.
Despite their financial difficulties, airlines are renewing their fleets. More modern and economical aircraft emitting less CO2. With expected air traffic of 10 billion passengers in 2050, more than double its 2019 level, the order books of the two major global aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing promise to be substantial. The competition between the European manufacturer and the American is all the more marked at a time when the dollar and the euro are practically at parity.
According to Airbus, the number of aircraft in the world should double in the next twenty years with a need for nearly 40,000 aircraft, all manufacturers combined. For its part, Boeing speaks of an 80% increase in aircraft needs over the next twenty years. There remains the ability of airports to absorb this surge. Airports today in lack of personnel, who will have to recruit and increase salaries to be attractive.
But that is not the subject of the Farnborough air show where we are talking about aeronautics business with three uncertainties: the evolution of the Covid pandemic, the consequences of the war in Ukraine and inflation which remains an unknown for industry in general.