Three weeks after the start of the war in Ukraine, world wheat prices continue to soar due to the disruption of deliveries from Ukraine and Russia. These two countries alone export 30% of this essential cereal. A situation that puts several African countries in difficulty, including Egypt and Côte d’Ivoire.
Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer
Half of its annual consumption comes from Ukraine and Russia. The threat of a shortage is serious in the country and the measures taken by the Egyptian government illustrate the scale of the emergency. Ali el-Moselhi, the Minister of Trade and Industry announced Thursday, March 10, a three-month ban on exports of wheat, beans, lentils, pasta and flour to ensure the availability of these foodstuffs as the month approaches of Ramadan marked by an increase in consumption.
Of the 13 million tons of wheat imported each year by Egypt, 80% comes from Ukraine and Russia. To cover the country’s needs until the end of the year, the Egyptian authorities plan to turn to the local harvest which should start in April.
“Four months of strategic stocks is not enough.”
Gamal Siam, professor of agricultural economics at Cairo Universityfranceinfo
This emergency could have been avoided, says Gamal Siam, professor of agricultural economics at Cairo University. “If Egypt had reserves of wheat and other foodstuffs for a year, it would avoid the effects of such crises.” But the time is over for such adjustments, it is already necessary to ensure strategic stocks. For this, the Ministry of Supply has opted for the hard way. Egyptian producers will be forced this season to supply at least 60% of their wheat harvest to the state. Violators will be subject to fines or even prison terms.
This year, Egypt will double its wheat purchases on the local market. This is a necessity to guarantee the viability of the subsidized bread system, at a fixed price of 5 cents. 70% of the Egyptian population benefits from it. The surge in world wheat prices is already weighing heavily on the price of non-subsidized. “The ton of wheat today costs between 10,500 and 11,500 Egyptian pounds whereas before it was between 7 and 9,000 pounds. So bread has gone from 50 to 75 centimes. With this war, flour has increased, but also gasoline and foodstuffs… Everything is more expensive! ” laments Rabiaa, a baker in downtown Cairo.
According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Programme, more than 90 of Egyptians are at risk of losing access to a balanced diet due to the war in Ukraine.
Risk of famine in West Africa
The situation is very worrying in West Africa. In Senegal, a baguette costs 175 CFA francs but the president of the bakers fears that it will reach 500 francs by the end of the year. The country imports more than half of its wheat from Russia.
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Côte d’Ivoire has also taken measures to combat inflation. The government’s plan provides for price caps on several foodstuffs, including rice, pasta, and oil (the price of bread is already set by the state). Exports of plantains and cassava are now controlled in order to favor the domestic market.
These subsidies aim to prevent this food crisis from triggering food riots as in 2007 and 2008. In Côte d’Ivoire at the end of last year, a demonstration against the high cost of living was repressed by the authorities. Ivorians have been suffering from inflation for almost two years, because of the Covid-19 crisis. Nearly 5% increase in consumer prices between July 2020 and July 2021. This is therefore not the first time that the government has made this type of announcement.
Burkina Faso fears that part of the funds intended for the Sahel will be redirected to humanitarian aid in Ukraine. This war comes on top of other crises in the region, starting with terrorism. Of them millions of internally displaced persons due to insecurity linked to jihadist attacks for several years. Then, climate change leads to record droughts. This makes the countries of the Sahel even more dependent on imports.
According to the World Food Program, ten million people will need food aid within a few weeks, during the so-called “lean season”. A period of scarcity which extends from May to August, because the harvests of the previous year are consumed while those of the current year have not yet been collected. A total of 19 African countries that depend on Russian or Ukrainian wheat.