Even if the Legault government still has a good three years in power, worry lurks behind the scenes. Pessimists fear seeing his fall in the polls worsen. Optimists pray for an eventual recovery.
Only time will tell what will happen. The only certainty is this. Since the breakdown of trust caused by the government’s broken promise on the third link and its erratic management of several files, we have observed two trends.
1) The CAQ is continuously losing support. 2) What it loses is transferred directly to the Parti Québécois.
In short, we are witnessing the reversal of the movement which, in 2018 and 2022, had contributed to the two electoral victories of the CAQ.
The more the popularity of the CAQ and its leader diminishes, the more that of the PQ and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon strengthens. And vice versa. For the first time since 2018, the CAQ finds itself facing a single opponent.
For what? By the combination of a certain disenchantment with a government incapable of improving public services and the discovery of a PSPP and a PQ that have become refreshing again and connected to their reason for being.
Result: after having vampirized a good part of the sovereignist electorate disappointed by a PQ in existential wandering for more than 20 years, the CAQ is in turn bleeding on its nationalist flank for the benefit of the same PQ now resurrected from its ashes.
Politics is made of ironies, but this one is particularly muscular. At least for the moment. Because no one knows whether this trend will continue or not until the 2026 elections.
In the blind spot of the CAQ
Another, more discreet concern, however, hides in the CAQ’s blind spot, namely the high proportion of francophone federalists within its electorate.
According to the latest Léger poll, 54% of CAQ voters would vote No if a referendum on sovereignty took place. For the CAQ, this is a major portion of its electoral base.
We forget that thanks to its rejection of the sovereignist option and the dizzying decline of the Liberal Party of Quebec since its stinging defeat in 2018, the CAQ has also refueled with the French-speaking federalist vote.
So much so that there are only 5 to 6% left in the PLQ. Hence another potential danger for the CAQ.
In 2025, the PLQ will choose a new leader. Liberals languishing at 36e underneath, almost no one wants it now.
Bleeding on both sides
But if the CAQ does not regain its previous support and the PQ continues to establish itself as the alternative, the leadership of the PLQ, who knows, could become more attractive to the federalists.
If the Liberals had to find a leader who was even the slightest bit presentable – or better yet for them, for the popular MP Marwah Rizqy to change her mind and decide to take the plunge – the CAQ would also risk losing a share of its its precious French-speaking federalist base.
If the two French-speaking electorates won over by the CAQ by its very nature as a coalition returned to the fold in 2026 – one to the PQ and the other to the PLQ –, François Legault’s formation would find itself very deprived.
This is why failure is not an option for the CAQ. If the government did not succeed in restoring public services by 2026 – and the PLQ also found a decent leader – it would risk being eaten away on both of its electoral sides at the same time.
It’s political fiction. Of course. In three years, the political dynamic has time to do backflips several more times.
But if the trend in the polls of recent months were to continue, such a scenario would not be far-fetched. François Legault’s real challenge is to avoid it.
In 2018 and 2022, his party fed on the ashes of the PQ and the PLQ. However, the astonishing resurrection of the PQ, even fragile, is already underway. If the Liberals were also required to show signs of life by 2026…