49.3 will be “most likely” triggered Wednesday, October 19 by the government, indicated Tuesday, October 18 his spokesperson, Olivier Véran. This article of the Constitution will allow the executive to have the first part of the budget for 2023 adopted without a vote, unless a motion of censure is adopted: in this case the government would fall.
>> Budget 2023: what you need to know about 49.3, this article of the Constitution which allows the government to force its way through the Assembly
The threat has been agitated by the opposition for several weeks, but there is little chance that it will materialize. Moreover, 49.3 may well happen, the left is already ready to fight back, assures Sophie Taillé-Polian, vice-president of the environmental group at the National Assembly: “We’re ready: we’re in this bad adaptation of Samuel Beckett’s play, Waiting for Godot… We’ve had time to get organized! So we’re waiting for him, yes, that’s for sure…” In other words: all that remains is to table the motion of censure of the left.
“We co-wrote, co-constructed, this motion of censure with all the groups of Nupes and I confirm that its terms are precise and are the subject of a beautiful unanimity.”
Sophie Taillé-Polianat franceinfo
Admittedly, the New Popular, Ecological and Social Union is unanimous, but it will take more to bring down the government, since to be adopted, a motion of censure must be voted by an absolute majority of deputies. In other words, the Nupes would need the support of the National Rally and the Republicans. They have already said no. “Government instability, bringing down a government to have it renamed, would not bring much positive to the country, thus indicates Olivier Marleix, the LR leader. The legislative elections took place four months ago and we respect the choice of the French. I have little affection, and this is an understatement, for President Emmanuel Macron, and for his politics, but I have even less for the politics and behavior of La France insoumise.
As for the National Rally, it too will not vote for the motion of censure of the Nupes. The president of the group, Marine Le Pen, decided: “We will not vote for the motion of censure of the Nupes for a very simple reason: we do not share with the Nupes the criticisms they make of the government, because we have others. We, we do not don’t blame the government for not opening the borders and not doing enough immigration. We blame the exact opposite!”
The National Rally does not rule out filing its own motion of censure, but it is not more likely to succeed. The Republicans affirm that they will not support it, and with the exception of a few rebellious deputies who have not stopped their choice, it is also no for the left.