faced with threats of a “very intense operation” from the Israeli army, Lebanese Hezbollah procrastinates

Daily exchanges of fire between the Israeli army and Lebanese Hezbollah have intensified in recent days, in the midst of the war in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Palestinian Hamas, of which Hezbollah is an ally.

Will the dreaded escalation take place? Thursday June 6, the Israeli army announced the death “in combat” of one of its soldiers in northern Israel, scene of daily cross-border clashes with Lebanese Hezbollah. The day before, in a climate of latent war with Hezbollah, the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, had affirmed that Israel was “ready for a very intense operation” on the border with Lebanon, where Hezbollah exchanges daily fire with the Israeli army, in support of Hamas.

A statement which raised fears of a “escalation“to the American State Department, which warned after these remarks against a situation”which would significantly affect security“from Israel. The UN said “very worried” tensions on the border between Lebanon and Israel and called on the various parties to de-escalate. Since October 7, this region has been the scene of daily clashes, which have left nearly 500 dead.

But if Israel says it is ready for an intensification of the conflict, Hezbollah is temporizing, ensuring that if the Jewish state drags it into a major conflict, it is ready to retaliate. A speech which is part of the strategy of the militia since October 7, which has been carrying out small-scale operations against Israel. Hezbollah mainly targets military positions: its rocket fire has caused less than thirty deaths. Opposite, the Israeli army responded much more heavily, with strikes which razed certain villages and killed more than 450 people, mainly fighters.

But despite these losses, the militia has not yet drawn its powerful arsenal, and in particular its ballistic missiles, capable of striking deep into Israeli territory. Hezbollah does not want war and is trying to appear as the most “moderate”, while Israeli leaders promise to raze southern Lebanon and Beirut. The militia knows that the Lebanese are largely opposed to escalation. Unlike the Israelis who, according to a survey, are mainly in favor of a massive military operation in Lebanon.