The Ukrainian army lacks ammunition, weapons and soldiers, and suffers in particular from the late release of a new envelope by the United States.
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The Ukrainian army is struggling. As kyiv feared, Moscow launched a ground offensive in the Kharkiv region, in northeastern Ukraine, on Friday May 10. This border territory with Russia, particularly disputed since the start of the war, was largely retaken by the Ukrainian army in September 2022. Between Saturday and Sunday, Russia announced the capture of nine villages in the region, including more than 4,000 residents were evacuated, according to the governor.
“Disrupting Russian offensive plans is now our number one task”assured Saturday evening Volodymyr Zelensky, assuring that Ukrainian troops had carried out counterattacks in border villages. But the Ukrainian president also urged, once again, his allies to speed up arms deliveries, which are slow to arrive at the front.
Washington tries to compensate for months of procrastination
These supply difficulties stem in part from divisions in the United States. On April 20, American parliamentarians finally accepted to grant 61 billion dollars to help Ukraine militarily and economically. Requested by Joe Biden, this aid has long been blocked by some of the Republicans, to the point that Congress had not voted for a large envelope for its ally for almost a year and a half.
However, the delivery of the promised weapons will take some time. Citing analysts and military officials, the New York Times understands that deliveries will be effective in the summer at the earliest. “The Russians know that they have less than two months to attack. Afterwards, we have the means promised by the Americans”hopes Ukrainian commander Yuri Fedorenko.
Until then, Washington is trying to compensate by increasing initiatives. The White House announced Friday $400 million in aid, includingt weapons that Ukraine needs “urgent”, in particular Patriot anti-aircraft systems, according to the head of American diplomacy, Antony Blinken. The third new envelope since the end of April, for a total of more than 7 billion dollars.
Europeans are looking for new resources
The issue is strategic, because the United States is, by far, the primary military supporter of Ukraine, which cannot expect such substantial aid from its European supporters. At the end of April, the United Kingdom promised £500 million in additional military aid. But this contribution brings London’s annual support to kyiv to three billion pounds, a sum out of all proportion to the American envelope.
The main European financier of Ukraine, Germany also released an additional 500 million euros in mid-March, but still refuses to send Taurus cruise missiles, these long-range weapons requested for a year by the Ukrainian army. The German Chancellor, as well as part of the Bundestag, believe that their use in Ukraine would require the mobilization of German soldiers. “I have the responsibility to prevent Germany from participating in this war”reaffirmed Olaf Scholz before Parliament in mid-March.
Support from the European Union is also complicated by the difficulty of the Twenty-Seven in agreeing on common aid. After weeks of negotiations, an agreement was finally reached on March 13 to add 5 billion euros to a common fund aimed at reimbursing member states for arms given to Ukraine. But demands from Paris and Berlin on how to use the money have delayed the deal.
The Europeans, aware of the emergency on the ground, sought funding in all directions. On Wednesday, they reached an agreement “of principle” For use Russian assets frozen in the EU to arm Ukrainian forces, a subject hotly debated between the Twenty-Seven. But if the cumulative value of these assets is estimated at 200 billion euros, Brussels estimates that it can draw a windfall of 2.5 to 3 billion euros per year in favor of kyiv.
Countries reluctant to part with certain equipment
Washington is putting pressure on its allies in Europe to accelerate the delivery of the famous Patriot, these anti-aircraft defense systems which have the advantage of being known to the Ukrainian army. President Zelensky said on April 19 that Ukraine needed “seven additional Patriots or similar air defense systems” to protect its cities.
These systems would allow Ukraine to “to counter Russian bombs, [Moscou] used to pound defensive positions and civilian targets, such as power plants”, Marina Miron, a researcher at the war studies department at King’s College London, told the BBC.
If these missiles are manufactured by the United States, several European armies have them in their arsenal, such as Spain, Greece, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden. Some of these countries are reluctant to part with this equipment, which is vital for their regional defense plans. The Spanish media reported at the end of April that the government of Pedro Sanchez had come under strong pressure from the European Union and NATO to donate its defense systems.