It is an understatement to say that the atmosphere is not festive at Les Républicains, at least as far as the presidential election is concerned. An elected Parisian confided, Wednesday, March 23, his feelings: “I feel like I’m in the Titanic, but without the champagne or the orchestra!” Great atmosphere.
Consequently, they are some – many, in fact – to wonder what they will do on the evening of April 10, if Valérie Pécresse does not qualify in the second round. First there are the deputies whose mandate is renewed during the legislative elections of June 12 and 19. A hundred seats were saved by LR five years ago, despite the elimination of François Fillon in the first round. A more pessimistic prediction this time, delivered by a right-wing leader: “If we are eliminated again in the first round, with an 8% candidate, the group will not hold.”
“It will be the hemorrhage from April 10 in the evening”abounds a right-wing parliamentarian, who expects a split between those who will not give voting instructions in the second round – which she will do – and those who will call to vote Emmanuel Macron hoping not to have a candidate facing to them in the legislative.
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“The principle of survival is 2/3 of LR deputies who will go to Macron, 1/3 to Le Pen”, predicts a setting. Around the president, we rather expect to recover about fifty deputies.
Another fringe of the right is projected on the presidency of the party, because Christian Jacob will hand over in September. Two suitors are almost declared to succeed him: Rachida Dati and Eric Ciotti. “Rachida needs new challenges”explains a relative.
As for Eric Ciotti, “He’s on a little cloud right now, describes a chosen one who knows him well. By campaigning for Pécresse, he is above all campaigning for him, he holds meetings, and says that there are people in his rooms.
And then there are two men that everyone is watching out of the corner of their eye: Laurent Wauquiez and Xavier Bertrand. They have presided over the party in the past, but those who have spoken to them privately recently do not see them struggling too much to resume a tattered formation. This applies even more to a defeated Xavier Bertrand at the congress last November. “He will want to organize himself differently and elsewhere,” explains a friend. Which means running your own shop.
Third category: those who play the next election. That of 2023 and the renewal of half of the seats in the Senate. The challenge for the right is to keep its majority. “Gérard Larcher fights to save his presidency”, explains a tenor LR. A fight despite all the risks mentioned: that of a massive departure of deputies to En Marche, of a party prisoner of its internal struggles, and an Emmanuel Macron wishing to fracture what is left of the right by going to poach elected officials local.
Edouard Philippe plays this role in particular, with his Horizons party, which is very rooted in the territories. The ambition is to create a group in the Senate next year and to disturb the monopoly of the right. And that’s also why Gérard Larcher is toughening up his speech during this presidential campaign, evoking “illegitimacy” supposed of the future head of state.