“We must always push further [la vaccination] because we have a virus that is transmitted very simply “, estimated Friday, November 19 on franceinfo Anne Sénéquier, doctor, co-director of the Observatory of Global Health at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris). The pandemic has accelerated in Eastern Europe, especially in Austria which will confine its entire population on Monday and has decided to make vaccination compulsory from February. “It is excluded to think that it can remain only in one place”, Anne Sénéquier alert.
franceinfo: How to explain the epidemic outbreaks in Europe, especially in Austria and Germany?
Anne Sénéquier: We have an Eastern Europe which is much less vaccinated than Western Europe. The incidence rates which are increasing today have come from Eastern Europe, such as Germany, Hungary and Bulgaria, which is the least vaccinated country in Europe. In Germany, the incidence increased first in the eastern regions and, since the populations circulate, this affects all the territories. It is therefore excluded to think that it can remain in one place. By capillarity and because the population flows increase as the Christmas holidays approach, we are gradually having incidence rates which are increasing everywhere. In certain regions, where there is a higher vaccination rate, one may wonder why these incidence rates are increasing anyway. In a country like Germany, we have less than 70% of people who are vaccinated, which looks a bit like France but we must not forget that there are 83 million people. Plus, that still leaves 27 million people unvaccinated. This is more than enough to generate an overload of health services if ever it were to increase. All these countries are therefore starting to take measures to try to limit these contaminations as much as possible.
Could France take more restrictive measures if hospital services were overwhelmed?
Yes, it was seen last week when a report from the Directorate General of Health (DGS) indicated that Covid cases in hospital in 2020 were 2% of all hospitalizations. Everyone said to themselves that, in the end, we had stopped the economy and our lives for 2%. But the hospital doesn’t just do that and I think it’s a good thing to remember that. Most of it does something else. The resilience of this health system that is always praised is not that real. Today, this health system is enormously weakened compared to 2019. I challenge you to find an intensive care unit in France that is doing better than two years ago. Some of the health workers have left. We have cuts in budgets and equipment. Today, we don’t need this fifth wave. The emphasis is on vaccination, which must always be pushed further since we have a virus that is transmitted quite simply.
What is the emergency: the third dose or the vaccination of the unvaccinated?
It is easier today to carry out the third doses because these are people who have already been vaccinated and who have already understood the individual and collective interest of vaccination. This increases their personal protection, since studies show that immunity wanes after six months. It’s relevant to them. On the other hand, this fifth wave is mainly an epidemic of unvaccinated people because they represent more than 80% of people who are in intensive care. The urgency is therefore to vaccinate those who are not, which is much more complicated.
Could confining the unvaccinated as Austria did be considered in France and would that be effective from a scientific point of view?
As long as you protect those who are likely to be infected or even die, it is not on the scientific level but on the human level that you want to protect. On the other hand, you are preventing them from living their life, earning a living and having a social life. There, on human time and scientific time, we are not connected. This is the whole problem. Today, we are no longer like in this first wave where the urgency was to protect the sanitary because that was the problem. The current problem is also economic, psychological and social. It changes the way of making decisions.