(New York) ExxonMobil expects oil demand to be virtually unchanged from current levels in 2050, a scenario that contrasts with most assumptions.
The US energy giant sees appetite for the black gold reaching a plateau in 2030, but expects demand to remain “above 100 million barrels per day” (mb/d) until 2050, according to documents published on Monday.
In the second quarter of 2024, crude oil consumption rose to 102.8 mb/d, according to figures published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The EIA predicts it will rise to 104.55 mb/d next year.
ExxonMobil expects lower oil consumption for passenger vehicles, real estate and electricity generation.
But he projects an increase in needs in public transport or freight, as well as in chemicals.
For ExxonMobil, oil and natural gas will still account for more than 50% of energy consumption in 2050.
The American group’s assumptions contrast with those of the IEA, which is talking about a demand of only around 55 million barrels per day in 2050.
One of ExxonMobil’s competitors, BP, expects 75 mb/d by this deadline.
ExxonMobil warns that without new investment in the oil industry, crude production would fall to 30 million barrels per day by 2030, 70 million less than global needs, according to its estimate.
Such a scenario would lead to “a severe energy shortage and disruptions to our daily lives,” but also a sharp increase in oil prices, the company warns.