Explosive Tensions and Helpless Leaders: Rising Strain on Lebanon

Elie al-Wain surveys the destruction of his home after an Israeli airstrike on a building in Aitou, Lebanon, which killed 22 civilians, including women and children. The attack has shaken the peaceful community, raising fears for those harboring Shiite refugees. Amid the ongoing conflict, some Lebanese politicians, previously hesitant, are now urging action against Hizbullah. However, divisions persist among political factions, complicating the quest for stability as the militia remains resilient in the face of adversity.

Elie al-Wain stands amid the ruins of his second home. The 42-year-old’s bright red shirt stands out against the rubble. He had rented the building to a Shiite family seeking refuge from the south, facilitated by a friend from Australia, he recounts. Over 20 civilians once lived here until disaster struck. On a Monday afternoon, an Israeli airstrike obliterated the multi-storey structure with overwhelming force.

Now, only shattered concrete and debris remain. Among the wreckage lie remnants of charred clothing, children’s toys, and the grim aftermath of human lives lost. A thick cloud of dust hangs in the air, mingling with the scent of fresh blood, reminiscent of a butcher’s shop on the mountainside where the home once stood.

Risking Safety by Offering Sanctuary

The attack in the serene Christian village of Aitou, situated in northern Lebanon, has resulted in the tragic loss of 22 lives, including women and children. This incident has shattered the tranquility of the area, which is distant from the ongoing conflict in the south involving Hizbullah and Israel. Neighbors of the targeted house remain in disbelief, while relatives of the victims gather to assist with the cleanup.

According to Rene Mouwad, a neighbor, a member of Hizbullah may have been present in the building when the attack occurred, purportedly to deliver funds to the refugees. Evidence such as militia martyr posters found in one of the burnt vehicles adds speculation but does not confirm intentions. “I can’t fathom why the Israelis wouldn’t target them on a secluded road instead of bombing an entire home,” he expresses.

This assault on Aitou is not an isolated incident. Israel’s air force has frequently targeted locations beyond Shiite territories. “Everyone knows their motives,” states Wain. “They intend to convey that those who shelter refugees from the south now endanger themselves.”

Emerging Opposition to Hizbullah

As the Israeli offensive against Hizbullah continues, pressure mounts on Lebanese citizens who do not support the militia. This also affects the country’s often corrupt politicians, who had remained inert until now. Before the recent escalation in September, many politicians opposed Hizbullah’s efforts that ignited a second front against Israel supporting Hamas last October.

Previously, these officials felt powerless against the dominant Shiite forces. However, as Hizbullah shows signs of struggle under Israeli aggression, displacing hundreds of thousands of Shiites and targeting diverse residential areas, an urgent response from politicians is becoming necessary.

In fact, three weeks after the death of Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah, some political figures are starting to come out of hiding. Recently, prominent Christian leader Samir Geagea organized a significant conference at his Lebanese Forces (LF) party headquarters, which positions itself as a leader in the anti-Hizbullah movement. Geagea demands an immediate cessation of hostilities and the enforcement of UN resolutions 1701 and 1559, which include provisions for disarming Hizbullah.

Political Rivalries Hampering Progress

However, achieving this may prove challenging due to notorious infighting among Lebanese politicians, which hampers decision-making. For instance, divisions among Christians, particularly between Geagea’s supporters and those aligned with former President Michel Aoun, have persisted since the late 1980s. The Sunni community remains rudderless following the death of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, and the Druze are adopting a cautious approach.

The Lebanese require a functional government and, importantly, a new president to regain their ability to act. Nonetheless, filling the presidential position, vacant for two years, has become a difficult task. Hizbullah previously attempted to push its favored candidate before September, but other factions are now also unable to reach a consensus.

Joseph Aoun, the commander of the army, is viewed as a top contender and appears to have backing from both the United States and influential Gulf states, who see a weakened Hizbullah as an opportunity to pivot Lebanon away from Iranian influence. However, Aoun’s potential appointment is causing division within the Christian community, with some preferring Gibran Bassil, the nephew of the last president.

Hizbullah Remains Resilient

Even if a new president is appointed, it wouldn’t ensure success, as Hizbullah is unlikely to accept disarmament—a point that Israel reportedly demands for a ceasefire. Some Lebanese harbor hopes that the army might rein in the militia, but the multi-confessional forces have struggled in similar undertakings before.

Moreover, Hizbullah is not yet van

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