A potential black-red coalition in Germany raises concerns about the prioritization of climate protection, as both the CDU/CSU and SPD have not emphasized it in their agendas. Disagreements exist over the heating law and nuclear energy policies, with the SPD favoring a phase-out of nuclear power while the Union is open to its research. Additionally, debates on the debt brake and climate financial support are expected during coalition talks, highlighting the urgent need for effective climate policies.
What Impact Could a Black-Red Coalition Have on Climate Protection? Neither the CDU/CSU nor the SPD prioritized the battle against climate change in their party agendas.
During the election campaign, climate protection failed to gain significant attention, ranking low among priorities. With a potential black-red government on the horizon, one must wonder: will climate issues continue to be sidelined?
“A look at the election programs and campaign statements may raise concerns,” notes Christoph Bals, managing director of the environmental NGO Germanwatch. However, he argues that both parties must remain accountable to the electorate, as their mandate includes safeguarding the interests of Germany and the EU.
Moreover, the parties cannot overlook the established climate protection targets. The climate protection law, enacted in 2019 and revised in 2024, mandates that Germany must achieve net-zero emissions from fossil fuels by 2045.
Will the Union Repeal the Heating Law?
For the Union and SPD to make any changes, they will need to find common ground on contentious issues. According to their election programs, they diverge significantly on the heating law. The previous coalition decided that only eco-friendly heating systems could be installed from 2028 onwards. While the SPD generally backs the law, they are open to modifications. Conversely, the Union’s platform expressed a desire to eliminate “Habeck’s heating law.”
By explicitly mentioning Habeck, did the Union leave open the possibility of retaining or altering the heating law? Friedrich Merz recently appeared to adopt a more flexible stance, indicating that they would “change the law to empower individual choices.”
Martin Pehnt from the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research in Heidelberg asserts that the new government cannot simply overturn the heating law. “It cannot be just discarded, as it aligns with essential European regulations.” He suggests that the law should be simplified but emphasizes the urgent need to move away from natural gas and heating oil due to rising CO2 prices and fossil fuel costs, as well as to reduce dependence on energy imports.
Expect intense negotiations on this issue during coalition talks.
Is a Return to Nuclear Power on the Horizon?
Another area of significant divergence between the Union and SPD is nuclear power, which is viewed as a potential solution for reducing CO2 emissions but also comes with risks and high costs. The SPD’s election program states, “Nuclear power is phased out in Germany, and this is a positive development.”
In contrast, the Union parties are open to discussions on nuclear energy, advocating for research into innovative fusion reactors.
Ottmar Edenhofer, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, believes that nuclear fusion is not a viable solution in the near term. “Nuclear fusion won’t emerge quickly enough to help meet the zero-emission goal by mid-century.” The topic is gaining renewed attention as federal elections approach.
Debt Brake: A Point of Contention
Disagreements also arise regarding the debt brake. The SPD seeks to relax it to facilitate climate investments, while the Union intends to uphold it as per their election manifesto. Climate investments are crucial for bolstering security in light of natural disasters intensified by climate change, such as the recent floods in Valencia, Spain, and previously in the Ahr Valley.
Bals from Germanwatch references an interdisciplinary report from the Federal Intelligence Service, the think tank adelphi, and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), which identifies the climate crisis as one of Germany and Europe’s top four security challenges.
As coalition talks unfold, the primary focus will be on defense spending. What options are available? Here’s a summary.
Will Climate Financial Support Be Introduced?
One issue where consensus exists is the potential introduction of climate financial support or a climate bonus for citizens, as outlined in the election programs of CDU/CSU and SPD. Should a black-red coalition form, they may successfully implement measures in climate policy that the previous coalition struggled to deliver despite commitments.