Before the arrival of the fifth wave of COVID-19, Quebec had significantly reduced its excess mortality in 2021, reveal data published Thursday. Despite a stronger first wave, Quebec posted a better record than the Canadian average at the end of the fall. But this portrait could well change.
Updated yesterday at 11:09 p.m.
The Quebec Statistical Institute (ISQ) released its most recent estimates on Thursday. The organization thus figures at around 3.3% the excess mortality assessed between the beginning of 2020 and December 4, 2021, the date of the most recent data published. From the beginning of 2021 until this same date, the excess mortality is calculated at -1%.
Between 1er March 2020 and August 28, 2021, i.e. approximately 18 months of the pandemic, “the number of deaths observed was 3.7% higher than the number expected in Quebec, while the proportion stands at 4.7% for the rest of Canada, and 16.8% for the United States,” recalls the Institute.
Anticipated increase
Note: given their interruption at the beginning of December 2021, the ISQ data does not make it possible to identify a trend for the fifth wave, which began to sweep over Quebec from that moment, and which clearly increase in mortality associated with COVID-19. It is only around mid-February that these data should be available.
“We will see if the fifth wave appears on our figures, but it is a safe bet that it will be the case. Our next mortality figures will probably reflect a certain increase in deaths, as was the case in previous waves,” said ISQ demographer Frédéric Fleury-Payeur, in an interview with The Press.
The number of deaths linked to COVID-19 has exceeded since Wednesday the peak reached last winter, with an average of about 73 over a period of one week. In mid-January 2021, there were 55 daily coronavirus-related deaths on average, also over a seven-day period. It remains to be seen, however, whether Quebec will exceed the peak of the first wave, the deadliest, which reached 130 deaths per day. At the beginning of May 2020, the province was reporting an average of 110 deaths per day.
If we look at what is happening elsewhere, we see an increase in excess mortality in the few countries where there is even more recent data than Quebec, which goes back two or three weeks. This can already be seen in Europe.
Frédéric Fleury-Payeur, demographer at the Statistical Institute of Quebec
“We see that all things considered, there are fewer deaths in Quebec than in Ontario, than in the rest of Canada, than in the United States. We hope it will continue, ”said the Premier of Quebec, François Legault, briefly about these new figures on Thursday. “We also see that thanks to the stricter instructions, we have had fewer deaths. We had too many, but currently, the instructions allow us to keep deaths at a lower level than elsewhere in North America, ”he added.
Montreal and Laval in “under-mortality”
After a start to 2021 still affected by the excess mortality linked to the second wave, the ISQ affirms that a situation of “slight under-mortality was observed in Quebec until around mid-year”. “This lower mortality was mainly observed in the regions most strongly affected by the first wave, namely Montreal and Laval, which suggests that a phenomenon of movement of the dead – or harvest effect – may have taken place”, analyze the Institute’s experts in their report.
Provisional data from the second half of 2021 suggest in this sense “the return to mortality close to normally expected levels”.
To sum up, this is a priori “more favorable” assessment than after 10 months of the pandemic, which however lacks details on the fifth wave. Recall that at the beginning of January 2021, the number of deaths was “9% higher than expected”.
It was especially during the first wave of COVID-19 that this excess mortality was particularly high, i.e. around 25% from March to June 2020, with a peak of 55% during the week of April 26 to May 2. During the second wave, from September 2020 to January 2021, this figure was much lower, hovering around 6%.
And in the rest of Canada?
Even if it managed to reduce its excess mortality in 2021, Ontario nevertheless reports a higher overall excess mortality than that of Quebec. The neighboring province has indeed reported an excess mortality of 5% in 2021 so far. Combined with the 7% excess mortality observed there in 2020, it therefore presents a cumulative average of 6% over two years. The west of the country also has a more difficult year 2021. Alberta, which had recorded a 10% excess mortality in 2020, recorded an excess mortality of 14% in 2021, Statistics Canada data show. Its neighbour, British Columbia, has also increased its toll. It is important to note, however, that British Columbia was also affected by a deadly heat wave in the summer, which caused its mortality to jump. In the first week of July alone, 778 more people than expected died, twice as many as expected. The province is also grappling with a marked increase in fatal overdoses.