Before the arrival of the fifth wave of COVID-19, Quebec had significantly reduced its excess mortality in 2021, reveal data published Thursday. Despite a stronger first wave, Quebec posted a better record than the Canadian average at the end of the fall. But this portrait could well change.
Posted at 12:20 p.m.
Updated at 12:48 p.m.
The Statistical Institute of Quebec (ISQ) made its most recent estimates public on Thursday. The organization thus figures at around 3.3% the excess mortality assessed between the beginning of 2020 and December 4, 2021, the date on which its data collection stops. From the beginning of 2021 until this same date, the excess mortality is calculated at -1%.
Between 1er March 2020 and August 28, 2021, i.e. approximately 18 months of the pandemic, “the number of deaths observed was 3.7% higher than the number expected in Quebec, while the proportion stands at 4.7% for the rest of Canada, and 16.8% for the United States,” recalls the Institute.
Note: given their interruption at the beginning of December 2021, the ISQ data does not make it possible to identify a trend for the fifth wave, which began to sweep over Quebec from that moment, and which clearly increase in mortality associated with COVID-19. It is only around mid-February that these data should be available.
“We will see if the fifth wave appears on our figures, but it is a safe bet that it will be the case. Our next mortality figures will probably reflect a certain increase in deaths, as was the case in previous waves,” admitted ISQ demographer Frédéric Fleury-Payeur, in an interview with The Press.
The number of deaths linked to COVID-19 has exceeded since Wednesday the peak reached last winter, with an average of about 73 over a period of one week. In mid-January 2021, there were 55 daily coronavirus-related deaths on average, over that same seven-day period. It remains to be seen, however, whether Quebec will exceed the peak of the first wave, the deadliest, which reached 130 deaths per day. At the beginning of May 2020, the province was reporting an average of 110 deaths per day.
If we look at what is happening elsewhere, we see an increase in excess mortality in the few countries where there is even more recent data than Quebec, which goes back two or three weeks. This can already be seen in Europe.
Frédéric Fleury-Payeur, ISQ demographer
Premier François Legault had recently suggested looking at excess mortality to assess mortality in Quebec. “Beware of comparisons on deaths. Some states do not include deaths when the primary cause of death is not COVID. We must use excess mortality, ”he said recently on Twitter. “For 2021, compared to the average for previous years, there were fewer [de surmortalité] in Quebec than in the other provinces and in the United States ”, had also argued Mr. Legault on Sunday, on the set of Everybody talks about it.
Montreal and Laval in “under-mortality”
After a start to 2021 still affected by the excess mortality linked to the second wave, the ISQ affirms that a situation of “slight under-mortality was observed in Quebec until around mid-year”. “This lower mortality was mainly observed in the regions most strongly affected by the first wave, namely Montreal and Laval, which suggests that a phenomenon of displacement of deaths – or harvest effect – may have taken place”, analyze the Institute’s experts in their report.
They reiterate in passing that “the protective effect of certain health measures may also have had an effect, in particular on the absence of mortality linked to influenza”. Provisional data from the second half of 2021 suggest in this sense “the return to mortality close to normally expected levels”.
To sum up, this is a priori “more favorable” assessment than after 10 months of the pandemic, which however lacks details on the fifth wave. Recall that at the beginning of January 2021, the number of deaths was “9% higher than expected”. It was especially during the first wave of COVID-19 that this excess mortality was particularly high, i.e. around 25% between March and June 2020, with a peak of 55% during the week of April 26 to May 2. During the second wave, between September 2020 and January 2021, this figure was much lower, hovering around 6%.
What about the rest of Canada?
Even if it managed to reduce its excess mortality in 2021, Ontario nevertheless reports higher overall excess mortality than Quebec. The neighboring province has indeed reported an excess mortality of 5% in 2021 so far. Combined with the 7% excess mortality observed there in 2020, it therefore presents a cumulative average of 6% over two years.
The West of the country also has a more difficult year 2021. Alberta, which had recorded a 10% excess mortality in 2020, recorded an excess mortality of 14% in 2021, Statistics Canada data show.
Its neighbour, British Columbia, has also increased its toll. It is important to mention, however, that British Columbia was also affected by a deadly heat wave in the summer, which caused its mortality to jump. In the first week of July alone, 778 more people than expected died, twice as many as expected.