In an unusual break with the party line, former Chinese ambassador to Ukraine Gao Yusheng admitted on Tuesday that Russia’s defeat by the former Soviet republic was only “a matter of time”.
Invited to an online conference of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, under the control of the Chinese autocratic regime, the ex-ambassador, posted in Ukraine between 2005 and 2007, also criticized the “renaissance” project and the “revitalization of the Soviet empire led by Vladimir Putin, which according to him contributes above all to maintaining the “decline” of Russia. A decline also sustained, according to him, by the “errors of the Russian ruling clique in domestic and foreign policies”.
His remarks were reported by the Hong Kong Phoenix Network, a media outlet under the influence of the Chinese Communist Party, before being censored.
“Russia is failing, summed up the diplomat, according to the archived version of the article that Beijing has decided to make disappear online. On the battlefield the defeat of the Russian army is visible in many places. Russia’s superiority over Ukraine in military and economic might has been thwarted by Ukraine’s determined and firm resistance as well as the massive, continuous and effective aid received from Western countries”.
“Russia is not only passive and impoverished on the battlefield, but has also lost in other areas: military, economic, political, diplomatic, public opinion, propaganda, intelligence and some information. Under the circumstances, it’s only a matter of time before she’s finally defeated.”
In his uncompromising analysis, the 75-year-old former Chinese ambassador also recognizes that the autocratic regime of Vladimir Putin has never really recognized the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the former countries of the Soviet bloc and “frequently violates their territories and sovereignty,” he said. “It is the greatest threat to peace, security and stability in the Eurasian region.”
He also predicts that this war will leave Russia “significantly weakened, isolated and punished politically, economically, militarily and diplomatically” with a “reduced international status”.
“Every day added to the war becomes a heavier and heavier burden for Russia to bear,” he said.
Ukraine, for its part, should detach itself further from “Russia’s orbit and sphere of influence (or at least from what will remain of it)”, summarizes the diplomat, to become “a member of the European family. “Other ex-Soviet republics may experience new and varying degrees of derussification,” he adds.
Since the outbreak of Russian aggression in Ukraine, China has refrained from criticizing Russia, its closest diplomatic partner. Moscow is also counting on Beijing to compensate for the loss of revenue from the sale of hydrocarbons that European embargoes could generate. The Russian economy is mainly based on this resource.
Moreover, Xi Jinping’s dictatorship refuses to qualify Russian aggression against the former Soviet republic as an invasion and believes that the United States and NATO were mainly responsible for triggering this conflict.